Time to check in on baseball's worst tradition, the rainout. If you need a refresh on what constitutes a rainout, here is my previous summary. Last time I broadened the rainout list to cover both Middle (or Low, to those who think of Short Season as not really Class A) A leagues. This time I am covering all seven Class A Leagues: the High A California, Carolina, and Florida State Leagues; the Middle A Midwest and South Atlantic Leagues; and the Low/Short Season A New York-Penn and Northwest Leagues.
High A
1. (Port) Charlotte 7
T2. Lynchburg 6
T2. Potomac 6
T2. Salem 6
T5. Carolina 5
T5. Tampa 5
T5. Wilmington 5
T8. Bradenton 4
T8. Brevard County 4
T8. Fort Myers 4
T8. Lakeland 4
T8. Myrtle Beach 4
T8. St. Lucie 4
T14. Daytona 3
T14. Frederick 3
T14. San Jose 3
T17. Bakersfield 2
T17. Clearwater 2
T17. Palm Beach 2
T17. Winston-Salem 2
T21. Jupiter 1
T21. Lancaster 1
T21. Stockton 1
T24. Dunedin 0
T24. High Desert 0
T24. Inland Empire 0
T24. Lake Elsinore 0
T24. Modesto 0
T24. Rancho Cucamonga 0
T24. Visalia 0
Middle A
1. Beloit 7
2. Lexington 6
T3. Bowling Green 5
T3. Clinton 5
T3. Delmarva 5
T3. Kannapolis 5
T3. West Virginia 5
T8. Greensboro 4
T8. Hagerstown 4
T8. Lakewood 4
T11. Asheville 3
T11. Augusta 3
T11. Charleston 3
T11. Dayton 3
T11. Quad Cities 3
T11. West Michigan 3
T17. Burlington 2
T17. Cedar Rapids 2
T17. Fort Wayne 2
T17. Greenville 2
T17. Hickory 2
T17. Lansing 2
T17. Rome 2
T17. Wisconsin 2
T25. Columbia 1
T25. Great Lakes 1
T25. Kane County 1
T25. Lake County 1
T25. Peoria 1
T25. South Bend 1
Low (or Short Season) A
1. Aberdeen 3
T2. Hudson Valley 2
T2. Tri-City (NY) 2
T4. Batavia 1
T4. Boise 1
T4, Brooklyn 1
T4. Everett 1
T4. Mahoning Valley 1
T4. Salem-Keizer 1
T4. Staten Island 1
T4. Vermont 1
T4. West Virginia 1
T4. Williamsport 1
T14. Auburn 0
T14. Connecticut 0
T14. Eugene 0
T14. Hillsboro 0
T14. Lowell 0
T14. Spokane 0
T14. State College 0
T14. Tri-City (WA) 0
T14. Vancouver 0
As far as the High A leagues, not surprisingly the California League has very few rainouts. San Jose leads the league with three rainouts, all on the first week of the season. California is generally a good place to be in the summer. The only recent cancellation in that league was by Lancaster, not because of too much rain but too little leading to the Sand Fire. I thought the Florida State League would have more, but it is played in Spring Training stadiums with good staff who can recover a field from the routine Florida thunderstorms. Only Charlotte (the city is Port Charlotte, like Port St. Lucie they shorten it to the county name) has had serious issues dealing with the weather in the FSL. Roger Dean Stadium, which houses both the Jupiter Hammerheads and Palm Beach Cardinals, has had only three rainouts despite having a game nearly every day of the season. And Dunedin has had none! Kudos to whoever works the stadium down there at beating the Florida weather for a remarkable job at getting baseball played.
The Low A (the real Low A, not what the SAL is colloquially called) leagues have very few rainouts because of its official designation: Short Season A. The NYPL and Northwest League have only been operating this season for six weeks so far. But congrats to Aberdeen for somehow getting three rainouts already in that time period. Given that the Ironbirds sell well, you would think they would put more effort into getting the games played.
For the Middle A leagues, poorly attended Beloit leads with 7 rainouts. Even though the attendance is per game played, I think it's quite possible that in some manner what is driving the high rainouts there is keeping attendance low. It could either be due to poor facilities or that fans in southern Wisconsin don't want to put up with poor weather anymore. But on the whole, the Midwest League is faring a lot better than the SAL. The Midwest often has thunderstorms roll through and has heat and humidity too. But aside from a few teams, the Midwest League has not had many issues getting the games played especially since the end of spring. Meanwhile the SAL continues to rack up rainouts, albeit not quite as bad as the higher level Carolina League. Five of the 16 Midwest League teams only have one rainout while only one SAL team has fewer than two rainouts: the Fireflies!
So why are the Fireflies so much better than the rest of the league at avoiding rainouts? I had thought maybe Spirit Communications Park had better drainage as a new stadium, but I saw the rained out game on July 18 and that was clearly not the case as the field could not handle a freak pop-up storm. Those kinds of storms happen nearly every day around here, so it's really surprising they couldn't handle it. Perhaps the field could have been fixed but they were very quick to call the game, barely over 30 minutes after the start of the delay. It's possible the umpire had a lack of patience for the storm moving out or the Fireflies were more interested in getting ready for a long bus ride the next day to Hagerstown. It's good that is the only rainout so far, but even one rainout is too much and you want to get as many games in without succumbing to every passing summer thunderstorm because we will get more without a doubt.
This is my first post in over two weeks! And I'll probably not post much in the near future until I get caught up on other things right now after having gone to many of the games.
Monday, August 1, 2016
Sunday, July 17, 2016
Former Fireflies Report (July 17)
It's time to take a look at former Fireflies who have moved on to Port St. Lucie. First things first: Tucker Tharp is fully healed and ready for more playing time and has been sent back down here, so he is no longer a former Firefly. At the same time Kevin Kaczmarski was deemed ready to move on so he will be on the report. Alex Palsha finally got promoted while the PSL Mets sent down..... Andrew Church? Apparently a 3.60 ERA wasn't good enough in the roster shuffles, so he was sent down here so I could get another chance to see him. But I didn't want to see a rain delay last night and he pitches the best of any Firefly this season, throwing a complete game 1-hitter. That is obviously of course what happens when I stay home, just haven't had any luck when seeing the Fireflies this year. And now of course that should get Church promoted again, maybe even to AA soon.
Batters
Pitchers
Siena and Thompson have been struggling to make the jump one level up, though Thompson seems to be improving the last few games. Kaczmarski on the other hand has done very well his first few games. I think the Mets timed his promotion very well, as it came when he was performing at his best. Siena was on the other hand on a downward trajectory when he got promoted while Thompson was stabilizing after recovering from an injury. Of course who knows what will happen once everybody gets more games in.
Conlon hasn't been doing as well in High A as Middle A, but he still has had a remarkable season, going 11-1 with a 1.94 ERA between both levels of full season Class A combined. He should be a lock to reach AA, if not this season then next.
Palsha needed just two innings to get half of his Columbia win total at St. Lucie. He didn't strike anybody out, but still his first outing as a PSL Met was a lot better than his first as a Firefly, and he ended up reasonably successful here.
Batters
| Batter | Level | TB | R | RBI | BB/HBP | SB | CS | 0 for 1 | SO | Score | AVG | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Siena | High A | 18 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 13 | 96 | 0.239 | 0 | 0.619 |
| Kevin Kaczmarski | High A | 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 80 | 0.438 | 0 | 1.188 |
| David Thompson | High A | 10 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 6 | 62 | 0.235 | 0 | 0.627 |
Pitchers
| Pitcher | Level | Outs | K | ER | H | BB/HBP | W | S | L | Score | ERA | WHIP | K/9IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Conlon | High A | 99 | 23 | 8 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 416 | 2.18 | 1.00 | 6.3 |
| Alex Palsha | High A | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.0 |
Siena and Thompson have been struggling to make the jump one level up, though Thompson seems to be improving the last few games. Kaczmarski on the other hand has done very well his first few games. I think the Mets timed his promotion very well, as it came when he was performing at his best. Siena was on the other hand on a downward trajectory when he got promoted while Thompson was stabilizing after recovering from an injury. Of course who knows what will happen once everybody gets more games in.
Conlon hasn't been doing as well in High A as Middle A, but he still has had a remarkable season, going 11-1 with a 1.94 ERA between both levels of full season Class A combined. He should be a lock to reach AA, if not this season then next.
Palsha needed just two innings to get half of his Columbia win total at St. Lucie. He didn't strike anybody out, but still his first outing as a PSL Met was a lot better than his first as a Firefly, and he ended up reasonably successful here.
Wednesday, July 13, 2016
July 13 Standings and Attendance Update
It's been another really rough week for the Fireflies, getting swept by Augusta again and after last night have lost 5 straight. Here is a look at the standings now:
* = first half winner
** = leads second half
Now for the latest attendance in the South Atlantic League:
1. Greensboro 5,195
2. Lakewood 5,076
3. Greenville 4,845
4. Charleston 4,382
5. Lexington 4,028
6. Columbia 3,867
7. Delmarva 3,221
8. Asheville 2,594
9. Rome 2,571
10. Augusta 2,562
11. West Virginia 2,258
12. Hickory 2,214
13. Kannapolis 1,596
14. Hagerstown 1,191
The Fireflies have been doing pretty bad on the field lately, going 5-14 since Conlon and Siena were promoted at the start of the second half. So what's wrong? I think a lot of it lies in that the Mets in 2015 had no first round picks. Further more, the Mets' second, third, and fifth round picks are all high school players who still haven't gotten out of Rookie League yet. The only Mets draft pick out of a 4 year college in the first 6 rounds last year was David Thompson, who was promoted out of here a week ago. The good news is that the Mets were heavy in drafting college guys this June, which means we should see better and more experienced talent in Columbia very soon. Hopefully they won't do what they did with last year's 7th round pick in Corey Taylor in promoting them from Brooklyn to St, Lucie with no stop in Columbia.
So is this hurting our attendance right now? I think part of the reason that MiLB teams do stupid "stuff" (another s word might be more appropriate there) is that they have no control of how good there teams will be. The Fireflies have no power to get a better baseball team, only the Mets do and the Mets are going to do what is best for the Mets. I suppose the Fireflies could see if another SAL or Midwest League team would like to exchange affiliations, but that's a bit unlikely and probably wouldn't accomplish much. Usually affiliation changes are mostly driven by marketing on the part of the MLB team. Getting Brooklyn outfielder Gene Cone who played HS ball less than 10 miles from Spirit Communications Park and college ball for a very popular team less than 5 miles away should be a boost for getting community support. Now if the Mets decide to send Cone to St. Lucie instead, maybe the Fireflies would have a grievance for changing affiliations.
At some point, I am going to need to do a correlation study on what drives attendance rankings. What is most important? Winning? How new the stadium is? Market size? My feeling is that in the majors, winning is most important but it might be winning from the previous year rather than right now due to season ticket sales.My feeling is that stadium newness is probably the driving factor in the high minors while market size drives attendance in the low minors. But what defines market size? And can some markets be too big if they have competing entertainment options? I will have to look at that with either a future attendance report or a Sunday feature.
* = first half winner
** = leads second half
| Team | Affiliate | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Division | |||||
| Hagerstown* | Nationals | 53 | 36 | 0.596 | -- |
| Greensboro** | Marlins | 51 | 38 | 0.573 | 2 |
| Delmarva | Orioles | 50 | 38 | 0.568 | 2.5 |
| Hickory | Rangers | 47 | 42 | 0.528 | 6 |
| West Virginia | Pirates | 44 | 44 | 0.500 | 8.5 |
| Lakewood | Phillies | 39 | 49 | 0.443 | 13.5 |
| Kannapolis | White Sox | 35 | 54 | 0.393 | 18 |
| Southern Division | |||||
| Charleston* | Yankees | 50 | 37 | 0.575 | -- |
| Augusta** | Giants | 48 | 41 | 0.539 | 3 |
| Greenville | Red Sox | 46 | 41 | 0.529 | 4 |
| Asheville | Rockies | 44 | 43 | 0.506 | 6 |
| Columbia | Mets | 41 | 48 | 0.461 | 10 |
| Rome | Braves | 36 | 52 | 0.409 | 14.5 |
| Lexington | Royals | 33 | 54 | 0.379 | 17 |
Now for the latest attendance in the South Atlantic League:
1. Greensboro 5,195
2. Lakewood 5,076
3. Greenville 4,845
4. Charleston 4,382
5. Lexington 4,028
6. Columbia 3,867
7. Delmarva 3,221
8. Asheville 2,594
9. Rome 2,571
10. Augusta 2,562
11. West Virginia 2,258
12. Hickory 2,214
13. Kannapolis 1,596
14. Hagerstown 1,191
The Fireflies have been doing pretty bad on the field lately, going 5-14 since Conlon and Siena were promoted at the start of the second half. So what's wrong? I think a lot of it lies in that the Mets in 2015 had no first round picks. Further more, the Mets' second, third, and fifth round picks are all high school players who still haven't gotten out of Rookie League yet. The only Mets draft pick out of a 4 year college in the first 6 rounds last year was David Thompson, who was promoted out of here a week ago. The good news is that the Mets were heavy in drafting college guys this June, which means we should see better and more experienced talent in Columbia very soon. Hopefully they won't do what they did with last year's 7th round pick in Corey Taylor in promoting them from Brooklyn to St, Lucie with no stop in Columbia.
So is this hurting our attendance right now? I think part of the reason that MiLB teams do stupid "stuff" (another s word might be more appropriate there) is that they have no control of how good there teams will be. The Fireflies have no power to get a better baseball team, only the Mets do and the Mets are going to do what is best for the Mets. I suppose the Fireflies could see if another SAL or Midwest League team would like to exchange affiliations, but that's a bit unlikely and probably wouldn't accomplish much. Usually affiliation changes are mostly driven by marketing on the part of the MLB team. Getting Brooklyn outfielder Gene Cone who played HS ball less than 10 miles from Spirit Communications Park and college ball for a very popular team less than 5 miles away should be a boost for getting community support. Now if the Mets decide to send Cone to St. Lucie instead, maybe the Fireflies would have a grievance for changing affiliations.
At some point, I am going to need to do a correlation study on what drives attendance rankings. What is most important? Winning? How new the stadium is? Market size? My feeling is that in the majors, winning is most important but it might be winning from the previous year rather than right now due to season ticket sales.My feeling is that stadium newness is probably the driving factor in the high minors while market size drives attendance in the low minors. But what defines market size? And can some markets be too big if they have competing entertainment options? I will have to look at that with either a future attendance report or a Sunday feature.
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Delmarva Series Preview
I decided to combine the updated Player Standings with the series preview. What I have done is I calculated my Player Rating score for both teams and compared them to one another. Only players on the respective active rosters are listed.
First we'll look at the hitters. Delmarva generally has much better scores for their hitters than the Fireflies do. There are two reasons for this, the first of which is because the Shorebirds hit better than the Fireflies do. The other is that the Fireflies' lineup has been more in flux with injuries and promotions. Losing Thompson and Siena was basically it for the Fireflies' offense, which has led to the Fireflies averaging just 2.75 runs per game over the past 8 games.
The guys to watch out for on Delmarva are their slugging catchers Yermin Mercedes and Alex Murphy, as well as speedy outfielder Cedric Mullins out of Campbell as well as a top Orioles prospect in SS Ryan Mountcastle. Mercedes' stats are very similar to that of Augusta's catcher Miguel Gomez who has been a real Firefly killer this season.
Now let's look at the pitchers. The teams are about equal here, mainly because aside from Conlon's promotion and a couple injuries the Fireflies' pitching staff hasn't been in flux as much as the Shorebirds. However generally aside from Canelon and Palsha the Shorebirds appear to have the edge here as well.
Generally there are no players on the Shorebirds of local interest. The Shorebirds appear to have the better players, so we could have more frustration this week on the field. The Fireflies have still yet to play a team in the second half with an overall losing record and that will again be the case until Rome comes to town Friday. Even if we can't break out of our slide here, hope the weather cooperates.
First we'll look at the hitters. Delmarva generally has much better scores for their hitters than the Fireflies do. There are two reasons for this, the first of which is because the Shorebirds hit better than the Fireflies do. The other is that the Fireflies' lineup has been more in flux with injuries and promotions. Losing Thompson and Siena was basically it for the Fireflies' offense, which has led to the Fireflies averaging just 2.75 runs per game over the past 8 games.
The guys to watch out for on Delmarva are their slugging catchers Yermin Mercedes and Alex Murphy, as well as speedy outfielder Cedric Mullins out of Campbell as well as a top Orioles prospect in SS Ryan Mountcastle. Mercedes' stats are very similar to that of Augusta's catcher Miguel Gomez who has been a real Firefly killer this season.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Age | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OPS | TB | PA | Score | Round Picked | Home State/Country | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Yermin Mercedes | Delmarva Shorebirds | C | 23 | 284 | 46 | 103 | 10 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 52 | 2 | 0.363 | 978 | 160 | 316 | 949 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 11 | Cedric Mullins | Delmarva Shorebirds | OF | 21 | 320 | 53 | 77 | 7 | 27 | 20 | 5 | 30 | 67 | 1 | 0.241 | 721 | 132 | 354 | 775 | 13 | Georgia | Campbell |
| 32 | Alex Murphy | Delmarva Shorebirds | C | 21 | 302 | 39 | 73 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 88 | 1 | 0.242 | 737 | 129 | 334 | 614 | 6 | Maryland | |
| 13 | J.C. Rodriguez | Columbia Fireflies | 3B | 23 | 295 | 41 | 71 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 2 | 25 | 50 | 1 | 0.241 | 647 | 102 | 324 | 590 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 10 | Kevin Kaczmarski | Columbia Fireflies | OF | 24 | 258 | 41 | 69 | 2 | 28 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 49 | 4 | 0.267 | 766 | 108 | 294 | 589 | 9 | Illinois | Evansville |
| 4 | Ryan Mountcastle | Delmarva Shorebirds | SS | 19 | 282 | 36 | 84 | 5 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 60 | 1 | 0.298 | 782 | 121 | 308 | 551 | 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | Ademar Rifaela | Delmarva Shorebirds | RF | 21 | 208 | 28 | 53 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 55 | 2 | 0.255 | 747 | 87 | 232 | 439 | IFA | Curacao | |
| 34 | Dash Winningham | Columbia Fireflies | 1B | 20 | 281 | 24 | 66 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 50 | 2 | 0.235 | 651 | 102 | 304 | 393 | 8 | Florida | |
| 7 | Ricardo Andujar | Delmarva Shorebirds | SS | 23 | 234 | 28 | 62 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 43 | 3 | 0.265 | 667 | 80 | 255 | 381 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 9 | Drew Turbin | Delmarva Shorebirds | 2B | 23 | 210 | 24 | 49 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 54 | 5 | 0.233 | 692 | 74 | 245 | 341 | 14 | Idaho | Dallas Baptist |
| 16 | Natanael Delgado | Delmarva Shorebirds | LF | 20 | 196 | 24 | 47 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 62 | 0 | 0.240 | 659 | 71 | 216 | 313 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 22 | Joe Tuschak | Columbia Fireflies | LF | 23 | 209 | 29 | 45 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 47 | 0 | 0.215 | 625 | 70 | 231 | 296 | 6 | Pennsylvania | |
| 21 | Steve Laurino | Delmarva Shorebirds | 1B | 23 | 219 | 23 | 47 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 55 | 1 | 0.215 | 639 | 71 | 252 | 267 | 25 | New York | Marist |
| 7 | Milton Ramos | Columbia Fireflies | SS | 20 | 239 | 21 | 54 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 57 | 3 | 0.226 | 574 | 67 | 263 | 232 | 3 | Florida | |
| 27 | Vicente Lupo | Columbia Fireflies | LF | 22 | 116 | 17 | 28 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 53 | 2 | 0.241 | 722 | 44 | 135 | 200 | IFA | Venezuela | |
| 18 | Gerrion Grim | Delmarva Shorebirds | RF | 22 | 120 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 1 | 0.250 | 720 | 47 | 137 | 197 | 14 | Missouri | Jefferson JC |
| 21 | Tyler Moore | Columbia Fireflies | C | 22 | 137 | 22 | 33 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 0 | 0.241 | 625 | 43 | 154 | 196 | 6 | Louisiana | LSU |
| 35 | Luis Ortega | Columbia Fireflies | 1B | 23 | 136 | 13 | 32 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 0.235 | 621 | 46 | 148 | 194 | IFA | Venezuela | |
| 9 | Enmanuel Zabala | Columbia Fireflies | LF | 21 | 48 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 0.271 | 689 | 18 | 51 | 74 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 30 | Natanael Ramos | Columbia Fireflies | C | 23 | 37 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0.297 | 777 | 15 | 43 | 67 | IFA | Venezuela | |
| 14 | Austin Anderson | Delmarva Shorebirds | 3B | 24 | 120 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 1 | 0.208 | 510 | 31 | 127 | 50 | 9 | Florida | Ole Miss |
| 5 | Eudor Garcia | Columbia Fireflies | 3B | 22 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0.261 | 624 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 4 | Texas | El Paso CC |
| 1 | Alejandro Juvier | Delmarva Shorebirds | 2B | 20 | 111 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 0.198 | 486 | 26 | 119 | 27 | 15 | Florida | |
| 10 | Randolph Gassaway | Delmarva Shorebirds | OF | 21 | 37 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0.270 | 578 | 10 | 39 | 25 | 16 | Georgia | |
| 4 | Dale Burdick | Columbia Fireflies | 2B | 20 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0.200 | 517 | 4 | 16 | -2 | 40 | Tennessee |
Now let's look at the pitchers. The teams are about equal here, mainly because aside from Conlon's promotion and a couple injuries the Fireflies' pitching staff hasn't been in flux as much as the Shorebirds. However generally aside from Canelon and Palsha the Shorebirds appear to have the edge here as well.
| # | Player | Team | Age | W | L | ERA | SV | IP | Outs | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | HB | WHIP | Score | Round Picked | Home State/Country | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | Cristian Alvarado | Delmarva Shorebirds | 21 | 7 | 5 | 3.66 | 0 | 91 | 273 | 91 | 38 | 37 | 8 | 19 | 104 | 3 | 7 | 1.21 | 909 | IFA | Venezuela | |
| 3 | Kevin Canelon | Columbia Fireflies | 22 | 5 | 7 | 3.12 | 0 | 97.2 | 293 | 90 | 40 | 34 | 9 | 19 | 80 | 5 | 3 | 1.11 | 894 | IFA | Venezuela | |
| 15 | Alex Palsha | Columbia Fireflies | 24 | 2 | 3 | 2.57 | 14 | 34.2 | 104 | 23 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 1.00 | 842 | 27 | California | Sacramento State |
| 25 | Brian Gonzalez | Delmarva Shorebirds | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2.93 | 0 | 89.1 | 268 | 82 | 36 | 29 | 3 | 35 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 1.31 | 808 | 3 | Florida | |
| 29 | Reid Love | Delmarva Shorebirds | 24 | 6 | 5 | 3.49 | 0 | 85.1 | 256 | 81 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 25 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 1.25 | 800 | 10 | Florida | East Carolina |
| 26 | Ofelky Peralta | Delmarva Shorebirds | 19 | 5 | 4 | 3.43 | 0 | 75.2 | 227 | 61 | 34 | 29 | 2 | 42 | 75 | 9 | 3 | 1.36 | 720 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 47 | Christian Turnipseed | Delmarva Shorebirds | 24 | 1 | 2 | 2.91 | 12 | 34 | 102 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 1.12 | 707 | 28 | Georgia | North Georgia |
| 40 | Francisco Jimenez | Delmarva Shorebirds | 21 | 6 | 7 | 4.5 | 0 | 83.2 | 251 | 68 | 46 | 42 | 7 | 29 | 62 | 8 | 7 | 1.15 | 648 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 11 | Tyler Bashlor | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1.62 | 3 | 38.2 | 116 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 44 | 9 | 4 | 1.08 | 593 | 11 | Georgia | South Georgia State CC |
| 28 | Joe Shaw | Columbia Fireflies | 22 | 4 | 6 | 4.81 | 0 | 85.2 | 257 | 102 | 57 | 46 | 9 | 21 | 88 | 4 | 6 | 1.43 | 528 | 12 | Texas | Dallas Baptist |
| 23 | Seth Davis | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2.30 | 1 | 43.1 | 130 | 39 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 19 | 45 | 2 | 7 | 1.35 | 462 | 29 | Colorado | Augustana (IL) |
| 26 | Craig Missigman | Columbia Fireflies | 22 | 1 | 1 | 2.86 | 1 | 44.1 | 133 | 37 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 22 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 1.34 | 430 | 37 | North Carolina | |
| 31 | Jay Flaa | Delmarva Shorebirds | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3.66 | 1 | 32 | 96 | 23 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 1.13 | 412 | 6 | North Dakota | North Dakota State |
| 45 | Johnny Magliozzi | Columbia Fireflies | 24 | 2 | 3 | 3.69 | 3 | 38.2 | 116 | 43 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 1.36 | 364 | 17 | Massachusetts | Florida |
| 6 | Chase Ingram | Columbia Fireflies | 21 | 4 | 8 | 5.65 | 0 | 78.1 | 235 | 90 | 57 | 49 | 7 | 33 | 76 | 9 | 6 | 1.58 | 346 | 6 | Florida | Hillsborough CC |
| 36 | Jesus Liranzo | Delmarva Shorebirds | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1.44 | 0 | 24.2 | 74 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0.76 | 339 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 33 | Bryce Beeler | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 13.1 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.85 | 197 | 19 | Tennessee | Memphis |
| 46 | Mike Burke | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 134 | 30 | Ohio | Buffalo |
| 40 | Gaby Almonte | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 1 | 2 | 4.03 | 0 | 29 | 87 | 38 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1.48 | 130 | IFA | Dominican Republic | |
| 17 | Witt Haggard | Columbia Fireflies | 24 | 2 | 4 | 3.21 | 0 | 13.2 | 41 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1.64 | 97 | 10 | Texas | Delta State |
| 27 | Robert Strader | Delmarva Shorebirds | 22 | 1 | 2 | 7.2 | 2 | 25 | 75 | 28 | 22 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 65 | 12 | Kentucky | Louisville |
| 35 | Lex Rutledge | Delmarva Shorebirds | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | 48 | 6 | Mississippi | Samford |
| 43 | Michael Costello | Delmarva Shorebirds | 23 | 0 | 1 | 6.65 | 0 | 22.2 | 68 | 29 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1.48 | 34 | 40 | Virginia | Post |
| 20 | Nicco Blank | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 14.1 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1.71 | 23 | 25 | Arizona | Central Arizona CC |
| 30 | Dariel Delgado | Delmarva Shorebirds | 22 | 0 | 0 | 4.5 | 0 | 2.1 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 29 | Florida |
Generally there are no players on the Shorebirds of local interest. The Shorebirds appear to have the better players, so we could have more frustration this week on the field. The Fireflies have still yet to play a team in the second half with an overall losing record and that will again be the case until Rome comes to town Friday. Even if we can't break out of our slide here, hope the weather cooperates.
Saturday, July 9, 2016
Former Fireflies Report: July 9
Here's a look now at Fireflies who have moved on. All the players who were demoted to Brooklyn have since returned, so only players who have moved up are on this list. First, a look at the batters:
Yes, David Thompson is now in High A! He has been replaced by suspended former (hopefully anyway) PED user Eudor Garcia at third base for the Fireflies. Once Garcia is able to settle in and perform without "enhancements" I think he will also head to St. Lucie soon as he's already had a productive season in Class A. Hopefully after Garcia moves on we can get the next set of prospects to come in. Anyway, Thompson hasn't done well so far in PSL, but it's only three games.
Vinny Siena and Tucker Tharp are both somewhat struggling to make the leap so far. Tharp's average is a bit more respectable, but Siena's walk rate is still solid while his strikeout rate is dropping. Right now the edge goes to Siena as Tharp has been on the bench a lot in PSL.
Now the pitchers:
Both Andrew Church and P.J. Conlon have done well. Church has been far from domiant though, and as a Firefly fan I think he wasn't rushed enough to get here but was then rushed past here after two starts. That was a big blow to the rotation in Columbia. Conlon has also not done as well as he did in Columbia, but that would be hard to pull off. I don't see either pitcher moving up to AA in the immediate future, but they both should at some point. My guess for the current Firefly most likely to join them in PSL soon would be Alex Palsha.
| Batter | Level | TB | R | RBI | BB/HBP | SB | CS | 0 for 1 | SO | Score | Adjusted Score | AVG | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Siena | High A | 14 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 10 | 75 | 150 | 0.226 | 0 | 0.603 |
| Tucker Tharp | High A | 13 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 12 | 67 | 134 | 0.261 | 0 | 0.603 |
| David Thompson | High A | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 0.125 | 0 | 0.489 |
Yes, David Thompson is now in High A! He has been replaced by suspended former (hopefully anyway) PED user Eudor Garcia at third base for the Fireflies. Once Garcia is able to settle in and perform without "enhancements" I think he will also head to St. Lucie soon as he's already had a productive season in Class A. Hopefully after Garcia moves on we can get the next set of prospects to come in. Anyway, Thompson hasn't done well so far in PSL, but it's only three games.
Vinny Siena and Tucker Tharp are both somewhat struggling to make the leap so far. Tharp's average is a bit more respectable, but Siena's walk rate is still solid while his strikeout rate is dropping. Right now the edge goes to Siena as Tharp has been on the bench a lot in PSL.
Now the pitchers:
| Pitcher | Level | Outs | K | ER | H | BB/HBP | W | S | L | Score | Adjusted Score | ERA | WHIP | K/9IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Church | High A | 105 | 22 | 14 | 31 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 287 | 574 | 3.60 | 1.286 | 5.7 |
| P.J. Conlon | High A | 65 | 15 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 550 | 2.08 | 1.015 | 6.2 |
Both Andrew Church and P.J. Conlon have done well. Church has been far from domiant though, and as a Firefly fan I think he wasn't rushed enough to get here but was then rushed past here after two starts. That was a big blow to the rotation in Columbia. Conlon has also not done as well as he did in Columbia, but that would be hard to pull off. I don't see either pitcher moving up to AA in the immediate future, but they both should at some point. My guess for the current Firefly most likely to join them in PSL soon would be Alex Palsha.
Friday, July 8, 2016
Class A Rainout Watch
It's now time to check again in with baseball's worst tradition, the rainout. Here is a look through the July 8 games, where two rainouts occurred in the SAL. I have now for comparison added the Midwest League, so all 30 "Low" or really Middle Class A teams are shown. For how this works, here is my last Rainout Watch entry.
1. Lexington 6
T2. Beloit 5
T2. Bowling Green 5
T2. Delmarva 5
T5. Clinton 4
T5. Greensboro 4
T5. Hagerstown 4
T5. West Virginia 4
T9. Asheville 3
T9. Dayton 3
T9. Kannapolis 3
T9. Lakewood 3
T9. Quad Cities 3
T9. West Michigan 3
T15. Augusta 2
T15. Burlington 2
T15. Cedar Rapids 2
T15. Charleston 2
T15. Fort Wayne 2
T15. Greenville 2
T15. Lansing 2
T15. Rome 2
T15. Wisconsin 2
T24. Great Lakes 1
T24. Kane County 1
T24. Lake County 1
T27. Columbia 0
T27. Hickory 0
T27. Peoria 0
T27. South Bend 0
Poor Kentucky. Lexington leads the South Atlantic League in not playing baseball, while Bowling Green is tied for the Midwest League lead. It's probably a matter of timing with the rains that have cut across the south central U.S. and headed to the mountains in West Virginia.
On the other end, we still have no rainouts! Only three other teams our level have no rainouts, with Hickory the only SAL team. The Crawdads are very close to having one, with a rain delay to start in a game against the Fireflies a couple weeks ago and then having the game suspended after the 5th inning. But as long as the game is suspended after the 5th inning, then it's good. I really doubt that we (or Hickory for that matter) will finish with zero rainouts. The forecast for this upcoming home stand looks a bit iffy, so we'll see. If the Fireflies win the Class A title of fewest rainouts, that to me would make up for the subpar play of late on the field and the middling attendance numbers. In fact since the team's goal is related to total attendance (and not per game) then having few rainouts would be a big boost. But given our climate, that's extremely unlikely.
In general, climate hurts the SAL. The Midwest League had more of their weather cancellations early in the spring, while the "Sally" has had some throughout including two this past evening in Greensboro and Lakewood. The Atlantic gets a lot of rain, especially in the South part of it. Going by the northern climate schedule has hurt pro baseball's growth in the South IMO, similar to how the early spring/late winter climate has hurt the growth of college baseball in the North.
Need to include the High A teams at some point, as I would love to see how many more rainouts the Florida State League has over everyone and how few the California League has against everyone.
1. Lexington 6
T2. Beloit 5
T2. Bowling Green 5
T2. Delmarva 5
T5. Clinton 4
T5. Greensboro 4
T5. Hagerstown 4
T5. West Virginia 4
T9. Asheville 3
T9. Dayton 3
T9. Kannapolis 3
T9. Lakewood 3
T9. Quad Cities 3
T9. West Michigan 3
T15. Augusta 2
T15. Burlington 2
T15. Cedar Rapids 2
T15. Charleston 2
T15. Fort Wayne 2
T15. Greenville 2
T15. Lansing 2
T15. Rome 2
T15. Wisconsin 2
T24. Great Lakes 1
T24. Kane County 1
T24. Lake County 1
T27. Columbia 0
T27. Hickory 0
T27. Peoria 0
T27. South Bend 0
Poor Kentucky. Lexington leads the South Atlantic League in not playing baseball, while Bowling Green is tied for the Midwest League lead. It's probably a matter of timing with the rains that have cut across the south central U.S. and headed to the mountains in West Virginia.
On the other end, we still have no rainouts! Only three other teams our level have no rainouts, with Hickory the only SAL team. The Crawdads are very close to having one, with a rain delay to start in a game against the Fireflies a couple weeks ago and then having the game suspended after the 5th inning. But as long as the game is suspended after the 5th inning, then it's good. I really doubt that we (or Hickory for that matter) will finish with zero rainouts. The forecast for this upcoming home stand looks a bit iffy, so we'll see. If the Fireflies win the Class A title of fewest rainouts, that to me would make up for the subpar play of late on the field and the middling attendance numbers. In fact since the team's goal is related to total attendance (and not per game) then having few rainouts would be a big boost. But given our climate, that's extremely unlikely.
In general, climate hurts the SAL. The Midwest League had more of their weather cancellations early in the spring, while the "Sally" has had some throughout including two this past evening in Greensboro and Lakewood. The Atlantic gets a lot of rain, especially in the South part of it. Going by the northern climate schedule has hurt pro baseball's growth in the South IMO, similar to how the early spring/late winter climate has hurt the growth of college baseball in the North.
Need to include the High A teams at some point, as I would love to see how many more rainouts the Florida State League has over everyone and how few the California League has against everyone.
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
Standings and Attendance Through July 5
Here is the updated SAL Standings through last night:
* = First Half Champion
**= leads Second Half
As I've mentioned before, it unfortunately looks like baseball at Spirit Communications Park will be taking a long hiatus after Labor Day. This could give the Fireflies and the City of Columbia time to shop Spirit Communications Park for other uses such as football games which would be weird to see in a baseball stadium. Right now I just want to see the team's .425 winning percentage at home catch up with the .535 winning percentage on the road.
Now let's look at the attendance numbers:
1. Greensboro 5,195
2. Lakewood 5,101
3. Greenville 4,859
4. Charleston 4,405
5. Lexington 3,975
6. Columbia 3,939
7. Delmarva 3,190
8. Augusta 2,660
9. Rome 2,611
10. Asheville 2,567
11. West Virginia 2,270
12. Hickory 2,240
13. Kannapolis 1,636
14. Hagerstown 1,188
The good news? Thanks to overselling the stadium on the 4th, the Fireflies' attendance average is by about 150 from recent weeks. The bad news? Lexington got more weekend games near the 4th to pass us in attendance, meaning the Fireflies are now 6th of 14 SAL teams and barely above the league average. With that said, I don't see any of the 8 teams below the Fireflies catching up this season in attendance. The Fireflies said they were shooting for 375,000 fans on the season and are on pace for just over 275,000. Anything above 300,000 seems unrealistic at this point. I just hope that the Midlands are3n't punished for failing to meet a quota that was probably unrealistic to begin with.
| Team | Affiliate | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Division | |||||
| Hagerstown* | Nationals | 50 | 33 | 0.602 | -- |
| Delmarvra | Orioles | 48 | 34 | 0.585 | 1.5 |
| Greensboro** | Marlins | 48 | 35 | 0.578 | 2 |
| Hickory | Rangers | 43 | 40 | 0.518 | 7 |
| West Virginia | Pirates | 42 | 40 | 0.512 | 7.5 |
| Lakewood | Phillies | 34 | 48 | 0.415 | 15.5 |
| Kannapolis | White Sox | 32 | 51 | 0.386 | 18 |
| Southern Division | |||||
| Charleston* | Yankees | 47 | 34 | 0.580 | -- |
| Augusta** | Giants | 44 | 39 | 0.530 | 4 |
| Greenville | Red Sox | 42 | 39 | 0.519 | 5 |
| Asheville | Rockies | 41 | 41 | 0.500 | 6.5 |
| Columbia | Mets | 40 | 43 | 0.482 | 8 |
| Rome | Braves | 34 | 48 | 0.415 | 13.5 |
| Lexington | Royals | 31 | 51 | 0.378 | 16.5 |
* = First Half Champion
**= leads Second Half
As I've mentioned before, it unfortunately looks like baseball at Spirit Communications Park will be taking a long hiatus after Labor Day. This could give the Fireflies and the City of Columbia time to shop Spirit Communications Park for other uses such as football games which would be weird to see in a baseball stadium. Right now I just want to see the team's .425 winning percentage at home catch up with the .535 winning percentage on the road.
Now let's look at the attendance numbers:
1. Greensboro 5,195
2. Lakewood 5,101
3. Greenville 4,859
4. Charleston 4,405
5. Lexington 3,975
6. Columbia 3,939
7. Delmarva 3,190
8. Augusta 2,660
9. Rome 2,611
10. Asheville 2,567
11. West Virginia 2,270
12. Hickory 2,240
13. Kannapolis 1,636
14. Hagerstown 1,188
The good news? Thanks to overselling the stadium on the 4th, the Fireflies' attendance average is by about 150 from recent weeks. The bad news? Lexington got more weekend games near the 4th to pass us in attendance, meaning the Fireflies are now 6th of 14 SAL teams and barely above the league average. With that said, I don't see any of the 8 teams below the Fireflies catching up this season in attendance. The Fireflies said they were shooting for 375,000 fans on the season and are on pace for just over 275,000. Anything above 300,000 seems unrealistic at this point. I just hope that the Midlands are3n't punished for failing to meet a quota that was probably unrealistic to begin with.
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
DICE Batter Rankings
After evaluating pitchers based on DICE, now it's time to do the same with batters. But wait, how can that be measured? Well, batters have walks, get hit by pitches, strikeout, and hit home runs. The only question is what constitutes an inning pitched for a batter? One method that you could use is multiplying at-bats by 2.6 or plate appearances by 3.1 as that is the comparison of the minimum for the batting average title with the number of innings a pitcher needs for an ERA title. But when I tried that all the hitters were too close together. So I decided to count an inning as 3 0 for 1 at-bats, since that creates an inning. Obviously there will be some fielding component then in that batters who ground out and fly out more will have more innings credited to them, but it can also work the same with pitchers too. So here are the 17 Fireflies ranked through the July 4th game by their calculated DICE, with their OPS ranks noted as well.
1. Patrick Mazeika (4.71 DICE, ranked 6th in OPS)
Mazeika is the best Firefly hitter based on DICE, as opposing pitchers would be projected to have an average ERA of 4.71 if they only faced him. This is because Mazeika has two home runs (decent for being injured the first several weeks of the season) and has an excellent walk to strikeout ratio of 17 to 20. Including getting hit by pitches, Mazeika has earned a "free" pass more than he has given opposing fielders a free pass. If he can develop into a defensive catcher, his hitting is where it needs to be.
2. Jeff Diehl (3.90 DICE, ranked 4th in OPS)
Both DICE and OPS think highly of Diehl largely because of him leading the team in home runs. Diehl has a high strikeout rate, though his walk rate is also pretty solid. In my Firefly Player Standings Diehl generally doesn't fair as well since he doesn't do well in running the bases, and he also probably needs to get better defensively to add value and receive a promotion.
3. Vinny Siena (3.85 DICE, ranked 1st in OPS)
Siena had the best OPS due to a high walk rate, which also is rewarded by DICE and the Mets see value in that too in giving him a promotion. He's behind Diehl due to not being able to hit home runs and behind Mazeika due to a relatively high strikeout rate. But he still was one of the best three Firefly hitters by most advanced statistic measures, and the offense is still trying to find a good replacement.
4. Luis Ortega (3.78 DICE, ranked 12th in OPS)
Ortega has a very low walk rate which places him in the bottom half of the team in OPS. But Ortega has homered once every 29 at-bats, the second highest rate on the team with Diehl the highest. If he could be more patient at the plate and worked pitchers better he has the potential to be a dangerous hitter with his strength.
5. David Thompson (3.56 DICE, ranked 2nd in OPS)
Thompson is the best hitter on the team using conventional statistics, and probably is on the active roster with Siena promoted. It does seem surprising that he has been able to accumulate 58 RBIs on just 5 home runs. It does seem weird for his DICE to be so low, but for being such a good hitter he has a very low walk rate. It's a bit hard for advanced statistics to measure a player being able to put the ball in play when needed.
6. J.C. Rodriguez (3.51 DICE, ranked 11th in OPS)
Rodriguez is ranked third typically in my All-Time Firefly Standings among hitters for two reasons: he plays nearly every day to get enough points, and his primary value may be being the best baserunner on the team. Hitting wise he has only been so-so far in terms of his rates.
7. Joe Tuschak (3.42 DICE, ranked 15th in OPS)
Tuschak is hated in OPS but not so much in DICE as his home run rate is 1 for 50 at-bats which is not too bad for Class A. His strikeout rate is just over 1 per 5 plate appearances which isn't great but indicates his batting average of .211 is lower than it ought to be.
8. Dash Winningham (3.29 DICE, ranked 9th in OPS)
He had a very low strikeout rate early which is now a little over 1 per 6 plate appearances which is still pretty solid. Still would like to see him build up his home run rate which is 1 per 65 at-bats which probably needs to be higher for a player of his size and skill set.
9. Kevin Kaczmarski (3.15 DICE, ranked 5th in OPS)
Most advanced statistics underrate contact hitters, and that's one particular flaw of using DICE for batters. For him to move up I think he needs to build up his walk rate like Siena did.
10. Tyler Moore (2.78 DICE, ranked 13th in OPS)
He's still on the team though buried deep on the depth chart now. All of his rates are acceptable but not as good as you want from one of the oldest players on the team.
11. Ivan Wilson (2.77 DICE, ranked 14th in OPS)
His reaction to dropping below the Mendoza line was to quit professional baseball which is a bit sad. Wilson did have 1 home run per 35.5 at-bats which is pretty solid for a player who also runs around center field pretty well.What did him in though was striking out a little over once per three plate appearances. Yet I think the Fireflies could have used his power over the past week.
12. Natanael Ramos (2.40 DICE, ranked 7th in OPS)
OPS likes him a lot better than DICE, which is because he has the capability of getting extra-base hits but not home runs. Yet extra-base hits are typically so because they are harder to field, and DICE assumes that all balls in play are equally fieldable. Perhaps we should use OPS to evaluate pitchers too (hey, perhaps that's an idea for next week).
13. Tucker Tharp (2.28 DICE, ranked 3rd in OPS)
Tharp has the biggest difference between DICE and OPS ranking of any Firefly. Again that is because he hit for a good average but homered just once (granted, he only had 42 at-bats). He struck out 13 times while walking only once and only got hit by a pitch once (which landed him on the DL for nearly two months before he got promoted). Tharp in some ways has been both very lucky and very unlucky this season.
14. Milton Ramos (2.27 DICE, ranked 16th in OPS)
Ramos has a terrible OPS under .600 as he is batting .222 with just 11 extra-base hits in 230 at-bats all season. He has 1 walk per 2.89 strikeouts this year which is respectable and is why DICE does not dislike him as much as OPS.
15. Vicente Lupo (1.84 DICE, ranked 8th in OPS)
Lupo after getting promoted to start the second half has shown remarkable improvement after spending time in Brooklyn. His strikeout rate is still a bit too high which is why his DICE is so low, but it has been coming down and he now has a home run and 9 extra base hits in 115 at-bats on the season.
16. Enmanuel Zabala (1.44 DICE, ranked 10th in OPS)
I think Zabala is a bit rusty after spending so much time in EST except as an injury replacement back in the spring. He still has too few plate appearances to make a valid judgment based on his numbers.
17. Jose Garcia (1.39 DICE, ranked 17th in OPS)
Garcia by advanced statistics was the worst hitter on the team before he went on the DL. He's still 21 so I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Brooklyn or even rehab in the GCL before he works his way back here when coming off the DL due to the crowded catcher situation right now.
I noticed that the DICE for all of the hitters suggests that pitchers would have generally pretty good ERAs against a team of just those players. That's likely because the team has been struggling to hit right now as a whole, especially for power which is important in stats that take away balls that can be fielded.
1. Patrick Mazeika (4.71 DICE, ranked 6th in OPS)
Mazeika is the best Firefly hitter based on DICE, as opposing pitchers would be projected to have an average ERA of 4.71 if they only faced him. This is because Mazeika has two home runs (decent for being injured the first several weeks of the season) and has an excellent walk to strikeout ratio of 17 to 20. Including getting hit by pitches, Mazeika has earned a "free" pass more than he has given opposing fielders a free pass. If he can develop into a defensive catcher, his hitting is where it needs to be.
2. Jeff Diehl (3.90 DICE, ranked 4th in OPS)
Both DICE and OPS think highly of Diehl largely because of him leading the team in home runs. Diehl has a high strikeout rate, though his walk rate is also pretty solid. In my Firefly Player Standings Diehl generally doesn't fair as well since he doesn't do well in running the bases, and he also probably needs to get better defensively to add value and receive a promotion.
3. Vinny Siena (3.85 DICE, ranked 1st in OPS)
Siena had the best OPS due to a high walk rate, which also is rewarded by DICE and the Mets see value in that too in giving him a promotion. He's behind Diehl due to not being able to hit home runs and behind Mazeika due to a relatively high strikeout rate. But he still was one of the best three Firefly hitters by most advanced statistic measures, and the offense is still trying to find a good replacement.
4. Luis Ortega (3.78 DICE, ranked 12th in OPS)
Ortega has a very low walk rate which places him in the bottom half of the team in OPS. But Ortega has homered once every 29 at-bats, the second highest rate on the team with Diehl the highest. If he could be more patient at the plate and worked pitchers better he has the potential to be a dangerous hitter with his strength.
5. David Thompson (3.56 DICE, ranked 2nd in OPS)
Thompson is the best hitter on the team using conventional statistics, and probably is on the active roster with Siena promoted. It does seem surprising that he has been able to accumulate 58 RBIs on just 5 home runs. It does seem weird for his DICE to be so low, but for being such a good hitter he has a very low walk rate. It's a bit hard for advanced statistics to measure a player being able to put the ball in play when needed.
6. J.C. Rodriguez (3.51 DICE, ranked 11th in OPS)
Rodriguez is ranked third typically in my All-Time Firefly Standings among hitters for two reasons: he plays nearly every day to get enough points, and his primary value may be being the best baserunner on the team. Hitting wise he has only been so-so far in terms of his rates.
7. Joe Tuschak (3.42 DICE, ranked 15th in OPS)
Tuschak is hated in OPS but not so much in DICE as his home run rate is 1 for 50 at-bats which is not too bad for Class A. His strikeout rate is just over 1 per 5 plate appearances which isn't great but indicates his batting average of .211 is lower than it ought to be.
8. Dash Winningham (3.29 DICE, ranked 9th in OPS)
He had a very low strikeout rate early which is now a little over 1 per 6 plate appearances which is still pretty solid. Still would like to see him build up his home run rate which is 1 per 65 at-bats which probably needs to be higher for a player of his size and skill set.
9. Kevin Kaczmarski (3.15 DICE, ranked 5th in OPS)
Most advanced statistics underrate contact hitters, and that's one particular flaw of using DICE for batters. For him to move up I think he needs to build up his walk rate like Siena did.
10. Tyler Moore (2.78 DICE, ranked 13th in OPS)
He's still on the team though buried deep on the depth chart now. All of his rates are acceptable but not as good as you want from one of the oldest players on the team.
11. Ivan Wilson (2.77 DICE, ranked 14th in OPS)
His reaction to dropping below the Mendoza line was to quit professional baseball which is a bit sad. Wilson did have 1 home run per 35.5 at-bats which is pretty solid for a player who also runs around center field pretty well.What did him in though was striking out a little over once per three plate appearances. Yet I think the Fireflies could have used his power over the past week.
12. Natanael Ramos (2.40 DICE, ranked 7th in OPS)
OPS likes him a lot better than DICE, which is because he has the capability of getting extra-base hits but not home runs. Yet extra-base hits are typically so because they are harder to field, and DICE assumes that all balls in play are equally fieldable. Perhaps we should use OPS to evaluate pitchers too (hey, perhaps that's an idea for next week).
13. Tucker Tharp (2.28 DICE, ranked 3rd in OPS)
Tharp has the biggest difference between DICE and OPS ranking of any Firefly. Again that is because he hit for a good average but homered just once (granted, he only had 42 at-bats). He struck out 13 times while walking only once and only got hit by a pitch once (which landed him on the DL for nearly two months before he got promoted). Tharp in some ways has been both very lucky and very unlucky this season.
14. Milton Ramos (2.27 DICE, ranked 16th in OPS)
Ramos has a terrible OPS under .600 as he is batting .222 with just 11 extra-base hits in 230 at-bats all season. He has 1 walk per 2.89 strikeouts this year which is respectable and is why DICE does not dislike him as much as OPS.
15. Vicente Lupo (1.84 DICE, ranked 8th in OPS)
Lupo after getting promoted to start the second half has shown remarkable improvement after spending time in Brooklyn. His strikeout rate is still a bit too high which is why his DICE is so low, but it has been coming down and he now has a home run and 9 extra base hits in 115 at-bats on the season.
16. Enmanuel Zabala (1.44 DICE, ranked 10th in OPS)
I think Zabala is a bit rusty after spending so much time in EST except as an injury replacement back in the spring. He still has too few plate appearances to make a valid judgment based on his numbers.
17. Jose Garcia (1.39 DICE, ranked 17th in OPS)
Garcia by advanced statistics was the worst hitter on the team before he went on the DL. He's still 21 so I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Brooklyn or even rehab in the GCL before he works his way back here when coming off the DL due to the crowded catcher situation right now.
I noticed that the DICE for all of the hitters suggests that pitchers would have generally pretty good ERAs against a team of just those players. That's likely because the team has been struggling to hit right now as a whole, especially for power which is important in stats that take away balls that can be fielded.
Monday, July 4, 2016
Advanced Player Rankings Using DICE
So far I have mostly been using a point system I learned 15 years ago from MLB.com's fantasy page to rank players. It helps measure the impact each player has had so far as a Firefly. But it doesn't really measure how well a player is doing. For pitchers, the point system gives a 30 point bonus for wins and saves and a 15 point penalty for losses. As most true baseball fans know, pitchers can't hit and therefore can't actually win and lose games by themselves so record stats aren't very good. But there is also controversy about whether ERA is a truly reflective stat on a pitcher as well. If fielders do poorly but don't make errors, a pitcher's ERA will suffer arbitrarily. That is why most advanced statisticians try to evaluate pitchers by only what they can control: walks, strikeouts, hit batters, and home runs (of course a small fraction of home runs are fieldable, and wild pitches probably should be included as well). The Defensive Independent Component ERA (DICE) projects what a pitcher's ERA would be using only those four stats in accumulated during his innings pitched. Unfortunately, this may have influenced the slowdown of baseball in recent years as pitchers at this level trying to impress the organization by making sure they are the one who beats the batter and not the fielders.
So let's now look at how the Fireflies' pitchers fair in DICE. These rankings are sorted by difference between the real ERA and DICE:
1. Nicco Blank (ERA: 10.22, DICE: 7.78, Difference: 2.44)
The huge difference between Blank's ERA and his DICE is because pitchers normally don't have an ERA over 10. Hopefully with more innings pitched both numbers will drop, particularly the real ERA.
2. Chase Ingram (ERA: 5.22, DICE: 3.48, Difference: 1.74)
One thing DICE does not measure is being susceptible to a few bad innings, which Ingram has had recently. Ingram being left in to allow 11 runs in less than four innings complete destroyed his real ERA, but not his DICE. Ultimately though the goal in baseball is to not give up a lot of runs however, so hopefully Ingram will recover from his recent outings. At the same time as long as Ingram doesn't make bad innings a habit he will put the Fireflies in position to win more often than not, which would mean he is more effective than his real ERA.
3. Joe Shaw (ERA: 4.72, DICE: 3.13, Difference: 1.59)
Shaw likewise has struggled with his consistency and has had some bad games recently. But when he is on he is capable of overpowering batters which is what DICE likes to see. DICE however does not take note of giving up runs in bunches as is also the case with Ingram.
4. Thomas McIlraith (ERA: 6.23, DICE: 4.99, Difference: 1.24)
McIlraith had a few bad outings most likely due to an underlying injury that has kept him out since. He can be overpowering (like when he through 6 innings of a combined no-hitter) but became wild as he tried to pitch through an apparent injury. Hopefully when he comes back he will be given a tight pitch count so he can recover.
5. Alex Palsha (ERA: 2.67, DICE: 1.69, Difference: 0.98)
Based on real ERA Palsha is in the middle of the pack among bullpen pitchers but DICE has him as the best, which may be why he is the team closer. Like most of the starters with a weak ERA, Palsha has been hurt in his real ERA by a couple meltdowns, most notably on Opening Night in Charleston. But ever since then he has been a dominant pitcher which is reflected in his DICE.
6. Tyler Badamo (ERA: 3.92, DICE: 3.40, Difference: 0.52)
Surprised a bit that a low strikeout guy is looked upon favorably by DICE, but there is still something to be said about having good control. Badamo doesn't beat the batters, nor does he beat himself. It's possible however that Badamo's stats could suffer if he gets promoted to a level where players have more muscle to hit home runs off him.
7. Christian Montgomery (ERA: 3.34, DICE: 3.17, Difference: 0.17)
Montgomery has a few bad innings, particularly one this year where he walked a couple guys and then gave up a home run when the pressure was on to throw strikes. That is reflected a bit though in his DICE as well as his ERA. But generally DICE still rewards power pitchers more than ERA does.
8. Andrew Church (ERA: 0.71, DICE: 0.63, Difference: 0.08)
In two starts Church had an impressive ERA. But his DICE was even more impressive due to 15 strikeouts in just over 12 innings pitched with no walks. That is why he did not stay very long here at all. Now the real question is why didn't the Mets have him pitch here in April? Are they trying to keep good prospects out of Columbia?
9. Kevin Canelon (ERA: 3.27, DICE: 3.40, Difference: -0.13)
Now we have the first Firefly pitcher whose DICE is higher than his ERA, meaning based on fielding-independent stats Canelon is slightly lucky to have an ERA as low as his. That's because he is slightly more overpowering than Badamo but has also been more home run prone when he gets in trouble (he leads the Fireflies in HRs allowed with 9). But he also has the most innings pitched with Conlon promoted, Ingram being forced into early exits, and Badamo now hurt so his ERA and DICE are probably both representative of how he is doing given the narrow difference.
10. Johnny Magliozzi (ERA: 4.32, DICE: 4.59, Difference: -0.27)
I'm actually slightly surprised DICE doesn't dislike him more, given that he is not particularly overpowering and leads the bullpen with 6 home runs allowed. But his K/BB ratio is 3.71 which is pretty solid.
11. Craig Missigman (ERA: 3.07, DICE: 3.68, Difference: -0.61)
By contrast Missigman's K/BB ratio is 1.73 which is not particularly good. Missigman when he has good control is solid as a steady and smooth pitcher, but can get into trouble by walking guys.
12. P.J. Conlon (ERA: 1.84, DICE: 2.64, Difference: -0.80)
DICE still regards Conlon as the best of those with three or more starts but not by as much as his regular ERA does. That's probably why it took him half a season to be promoted. Yet there is something to be said about a pitcher who is consistent which DICE doesn't reward much.
13. Tyler Bashlor (ERA: 1.47, DICE: 2.75, Difference: -1.28)
It's hard to believe Bashlor leads the bullpen in ERA. and DICE has a hard time believing it as well. He has 4.4 walks per 9 innings and a WHIP of 1.09, which is decent but not great like his real ERA. Bashlor however has a high strikeout rate which I thought DICE would love more, and there is something to be said for being avoiding the big hit (or perhaps it's luck). What DICE does not notice about his walks is that unlike some pitchers his walks don't snowball on him into completely falling apart (as is the case for most of the rest of the bullpen).
14. Seth Davis (ERA: 2.27, DICE: 3.61, Difference: -1.34)
Davis has been effective this year despite not being a prototypical pro pitcher. That's something most scouts don't like and neither does DICE. He still has value though as a consistent left-handed pitcher which every bullpen needs.
15. Gaby Almonte (ERA: 4.29, DICE: 5.86, Difference: -1.57)
Almonte is not overpowering and fell victim a bit to the longball in his last outing. It's hard to make use of his numbers yet though with just 4 starts.
16. Witt Haggard (ERA: 3.55, DICE: 5.29, Difference: -1.74)
He's getting better, but he still hasn't thrown enough innings for DICE to excuse his sloppy start in Charleston before going on the DL. On a side note, it's odd to see a reliever get a decision in half his outings. That's not normally what you want though as his record is 1-4.
17. Bryce Beeler (ERA: 0.00, DICE: 1.89, Difference: -1.89)
He was dominant in his first start without being overpowering. Obviously he needs a lot more outings than just one before these numbers become valid.
Tomorrow I'll be using DICE to look at the batters. Yes, I'll be using a pitching stat to look at hitting!
So let's now look at how the Fireflies' pitchers fair in DICE. These rankings are sorted by difference between the real ERA and DICE:
1. Nicco Blank (ERA: 10.22, DICE: 7.78, Difference: 2.44)
The huge difference between Blank's ERA and his DICE is because pitchers normally don't have an ERA over 10. Hopefully with more innings pitched both numbers will drop, particularly the real ERA.
2. Chase Ingram (ERA: 5.22, DICE: 3.48, Difference: 1.74)
One thing DICE does not measure is being susceptible to a few bad innings, which Ingram has had recently. Ingram being left in to allow 11 runs in less than four innings complete destroyed his real ERA, but not his DICE. Ultimately though the goal in baseball is to not give up a lot of runs however, so hopefully Ingram will recover from his recent outings. At the same time as long as Ingram doesn't make bad innings a habit he will put the Fireflies in position to win more often than not, which would mean he is more effective than his real ERA.
3. Joe Shaw (ERA: 4.72, DICE: 3.13, Difference: 1.59)
Shaw likewise has struggled with his consistency and has had some bad games recently. But when he is on he is capable of overpowering batters which is what DICE likes to see. DICE however does not take note of giving up runs in bunches as is also the case with Ingram.
4. Thomas McIlraith (ERA: 6.23, DICE: 4.99, Difference: 1.24)
McIlraith had a few bad outings most likely due to an underlying injury that has kept him out since. He can be overpowering (like when he through 6 innings of a combined no-hitter) but became wild as he tried to pitch through an apparent injury. Hopefully when he comes back he will be given a tight pitch count so he can recover.
5. Alex Palsha (ERA: 2.67, DICE: 1.69, Difference: 0.98)
Based on real ERA Palsha is in the middle of the pack among bullpen pitchers but DICE has him as the best, which may be why he is the team closer. Like most of the starters with a weak ERA, Palsha has been hurt in his real ERA by a couple meltdowns, most notably on Opening Night in Charleston. But ever since then he has been a dominant pitcher which is reflected in his DICE.
6. Tyler Badamo (ERA: 3.92, DICE: 3.40, Difference: 0.52)
Surprised a bit that a low strikeout guy is looked upon favorably by DICE, but there is still something to be said about having good control. Badamo doesn't beat the batters, nor does he beat himself. It's possible however that Badamo's stats could suffer if he gets promoted to a level where players have more muscle to hit home runs off him.
7. Christian Montgomery (ERA: 3.34, DICE: 3.17, Difference: 0.17)
Montgomery has a few bad innings, particularly one this year where he walked a couple guys and then gave up a home run when the pressure was on to throw strikes. That is reflected a bit though in his DICE as well as his ERA. But generally DICE still rewards power pitchers more than ERA does.
8. Andrew Church (ERA: 0.71, DICE: 0.63, Difference: 0.08)
In two starts Church had an impressive ERA. But his DICE was even more impressive due to 15 strikeouts in just over 12 innings pitched with no walks. That is why he did not stay very long here at all. Now the real question is why didn't the Mets have him pitch here in April? Are they trying to keep good prospects out of Columbia?
9. Kevin Canelon (ERA: 3.27, DICE: 3.40, Difference: -0.13)
Now we have the first Firefly pitcher whose DICE is higher than his ERA, meaning based on fielding-independent stats Canelon is slightly lucky to have an ERA as low as his. That's because he is slightly more overpowering than Badamo but has also been more home run prone when he gets in trouble (he leads the Fireflies in HRs allowed with 9). But he also has the most innings pitched with Conlon promoted, Ingram being forced into early exits, and Badamo now hurt so his ERA and DICE are probably both representative of how he is doing given the narrow difference.
10. Johnny Magliozzi (ERA: 4.32, DICE: 4.59, Difference: -0.27)
I'm actually slightly surprised DICE doesn't dislike him more, given that he is not particularly overpowering and leads the bullpen with 6 home runs allowed. But his K/BB ratio is 3.71 which is pretty solid.
11. Craig Missigman (ERA: 3.07, DICE: 3.68, Difference: -0.61)
By contrast Missigman's K/BB ratio is 1.73 which is not particularly good. Missigman when he has good control is solid as a steady and smooth pitcher, but can get into trouble by walking guys.
12. P.J. Conlon (ERA: 1.84, DICE: 2.64, Difference: -0.80)
DICE still regards Conlon as the best of those with three or more starts but not by as much as his regular ERA does. That's probably why it took him half a season to be promoted. Yet there is something to be said about a pitcher who is consistent which DICE doesn't reward much.
13. Tyler Bashlor (ERA: 1.47, DICE: 2.75, Difference: -1.28)
It's hard to believe Bashlor leads the bullpen in ERA. and DICE has a hard time believing it as well. He has 4.4 walks per 9 innings and a WHIP of 1.09, which is decent but not great like his real ERA. Bashlor however has a high strikeout rate which I thought DICE would love more, and there is something to be said for being avoiding the big hit (or perhaps it's luck). What DICE does not notice about his walks is that unlike some pitchers his walks don't snowball on him into completely falling apart (as is the case for most of the rest of the bullpen).
14. Seth Davis (ERA: 2.27, DICE: 3.61, Difference: -1.34)
Davis has been effective this year despite not being a prototypical pro pitcher. That's something most scouts don't like and neither does DICE. He still has value though as a consistent left-handed pitcher which every bullpen needs.
15. Gaby Almonte (ERA: 4.29, DICE: 5.86, Difference: -1.57)
Almonte is not overpowering and fell victim a bit to the longball in his last outing. It's hard to make use of his numbers yet though with just 4 starts.
16. Witt Haggard (ERA: 3.55, DICE: 5.29, Difference: -1.74)
He's getting better, but he still hasn't thrown enough innings for DICE to excuse his sloppy start in Charleston before going on the DL. On a side note, it's odd to see a reliever get a decision in half his outings. That's not normally what you want though as his record is 1-4.
17. Bryce Beeler (ERA: 0.00, DICE: 1.89, Difference: -1.89)
He was dominant in his first start without being overpowering. Obviously he needs a lot more outings than just one before these numbers become valid.
Tomorrow I'll be using DICE to look at the batters. Yes, I'll be using a pitching stat to look at hitting!
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Class A Standings and Attendance (updated through June 28)
Here's a look at the 2016 standings for both Class A leagues. I took the overall standings and noted the leaders for both halves. This is in contrast to most official MiLB websites which list only the early Second Half numbers with the First Half champion noted, and also different from websites like Baseball Reference which don't make any note of the half winners.
So unfortunately, while it's still early in the second half it doesn't look like the Fireflies will make the playoffs. :-( So let's now look at the attendance figures, where the Fireflies are treading in the high middle of the pack. I decided to include Twitter followers of each team that I looked up a few weeks ago (so they are slightly out of date), which I initially intended to be used in a Sunday feature but decided to include in the attendance totals instead.
As you can see, there is a strong correlation between followers and fans at the games. There are exceptions to this, including the Fireflies which are 11th in attendance but 20th in Twitter followers. This is largely due to the newness of the team. I would like to see better marketing, which needs to emphasize the importance of the team to the overall community. But given that even the dead Sand Gnats account (which got revived in a Twitter feud between the Fireflies and the RiverDogs) has more followers than the Fireflies. So we still have a ways to go, but we're respectable in reaching the community. As much as I don't like the RiverDogs, they are the best at marketing themselves to the community and thus lead in Twitter followers (possibly because some Yankee fans follow their affiliates as well, although I'm not sure how many Yankee fans care about MiLB). Another Charleston in West Virginia is best at getting Twitter followers (11th in Class A) despite low fan turnout (23rd in Class A). That is largely because the Power are perhaps the most important sports team to the biggest city in West Virginia, and might get better turnout at games if not for bad weather (the recent floods being an extreme example of that). On the flip side, Greensboro has the 3rd best attendance in Class A but the sixth worst in getting Twitter followers. If I had to guess, it's because while the Grasshoppers get good support from Greensboro they don't get support from neighboring communities who mostly have their own teams at least at the summer collegiate level. With both attendance and Twitter followers, the top half of the Midwest League is better than nearly everybody in the SAL while the bottom half of the SAL gets better support than the bottom half of the Midwest League.
| Midwest League | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Division | |||||
| Team | Affiliate | W | L | PCT | GB |
| South Bend Cubs* | CHC | 46 | 29 | 0.613 | -- |
| Lake County Captains | CLE | 43 | 33 | 0.566 | 3.5 |
| West Michigan Whitecaps | DET | 40 | 33 | 0.548 | 5 |
| Lansing Lugnuts** | TOR | 41 | 35 | 0.539 | 5.5 |
| Fort Wayne TinCaps | SDP | 40 | 36 | 0.526 | 6.5 |
| Bowling Green Hot Rods | TBR | 39 | 36 | 0.52 | 7 |
| Great Lakes Loons | LAD | 32 | 44 | 0.421 | 14.5 |
| Dayton Dragons | CIN | 22 | 54 | 0.289 | 24.5 |
| Western Division | |||||
| Team | Affiliate | W | L | PCT | GB |
| Clinton LumberKings** | SEA | 45 | 31 | 0.592 | -- |
| Peoria Chiefs* | STL | 42 | 34 | 0.553 | 3 |
| Cedar Rapids Kernels | MIN | 40 | 35 | 0.533 | 4.5 |
| Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | MIL | 37 | 39 | 0.487 | 8 |
| Beloit Snappers | OAK | 35 | 40 | 0.467 | 9.5 |
| Kane County Cougars | ARI | 35 | 41 | 0.461 | 10 |
| Burlington Bees | LAA | 34 | 42 | 0.447 | 11 |
| Quad Cities River Bandits | HOU | 33 | 42 | 0.44 | 11.5 |
| South Atlantic League | |||||
| Northern Division | |||||
| Team | Affiliate | W | L | PCT | GB |
| Hagerstown Suns* | WSN | 47 | 29 | 0.618 | -- |
| Delmarva Shorebirds | BAL | 43 | 31 | 0.581 | 3 |
| Greensboro Grasshoppers** | MIA | 42 | 33 | 0.56 | 4.5 |
| Hickory Crawdads | TEX | 40 | 36 | 0.526 | 7 |
| West Virginia Power | PIT | 38 | 37 | 0.507 | 8.5 |
| Lakewood BlueClaws | PHI | 33 | 42 | 0.44 | 13.5 |
| Kannapolis Intimidators | CHW | 28 | 48 | 0.368 | 19 |
| Southern Division | |||||
| Team | Affiliate | W | L | PCT | GB |
| Charleston RiverDogs* | NYY | 43 | 31 | 0.581 | -- |
| Greenville Drive | BOS | 40 | 34 | 0.541 | 3 |
| Augusta GreenJackets** | SFG | 41 | 35 | 0.539 | 3 |
| Asheville Tourists | COL | 37 | 38 | 0.493 | 6.5 |
| Columbia Fireflies | NYM | 37 | 39 | 0.487 | 7 |
| Rome Braves | ATL | 31 | 44 | 0.413 | 12.5 |
| Lexington Legends | KCR | 26 | 49 | 0.347 | 17.5 |
| *=First Half Winner | |||||
| **=Leads Second Half |
So unfortunately, while it's still early in the second half it doesn't look like the Fireflies will make the playoffs. :-( So let's now look at the attendance figures, where the Fireflies are treading in the high middle of the pack. I decided to include Twitter followers of each team that I looked up a few weeks ago (so they are slightly out of date), which I initially intended to be used in a Sunday feature but decided to include in the attendance totals instead.
| Team | Followers | Twitter Rank | Attendance | Attendance Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | 9503 | 15 | 8235 | 1 | 14 |
| Fort Wayne | 27934 | 2 | 5646 | 2 | 0 |
| Greensboro | 6795 | 25 | 5108 | 3 | 22 |
| Lakewood | 17069 | 5 | 4937 | 4 | 1 |
| Kane County | 11847 | 10 | 4903 | 5 | 5 |
| Greenville | 22707 | 4 | 4832 | 6 | -2 |
| South Bend | 24819 | 3 | 4528 | 7 | -4 |
| West Michigan | 16537 | 6 | 4460 | 8 | -2 |
| Charleston | 28262 | 1 | 4340 | 9 | -8 |
| Lansing | 9940 | 13 | 4220 | 10 | 3 |
| Columbia | 8269 | 20 | 3840 | 11 | 9 |
| Lexington | 8205 | 21 | 3744 | 12 | 9 |
| Peoria | 12894 | 8 | 3250 | 13 | -5 |
| Delmarva | 12542 | 9 | 3162 | 14 | -5 |
| Wisconsin | 13122 | 7 | 3130 | 15 | -8 |
| Quad Cities | 9404 | 16 | 3100 | 16 | 0 |
| Bowling Green | 8626 | 19 | 2674 | 17 | 2 |
| Augusta | 6312 | 26 | 2655 | 18 | 8 |
| Rome | 11585 | 12 | 2573 | 19 | -7 |
| Asheville | 9309 | 17 | 2524 | 20 | -3 |
| Lake County | 9922 | 14 | 2419 | 21 | -7 |
| Great Lakes | 8185 | 22 | 2300 | 22 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 11842 | 11 | 2228 | 23 | -12 |
| Cedar Rapids | 8934 | 18 | 2222 | 24 | -6 |
| Hickory | 7455 | 23 | 2159 | 25 | -2 |
| Clinton | 5723 | 28 | 1689 | 26 | 2 |
| Kannapolis | 6954 | 24 | 1560 | 27 | -3 |
| Hagerstown | 6058 | 27 | 1065 | 28 | -1 |
| Burlington | 4586 | 29 | 857 | 29 | 0 |
| Beloit | 4546 | 30 | 795 | 30 | 0 |
As you can see, there is a strong correlation between followers and fans at the games. There are exceptions to this, including the Fireflies which are 11th in attendance but 20th in Twitter followers. This is largely due to the newness of the team. I would like to see better marketing, which needs to emphasize the importance of the team to the overall community. But given that even the dead Sand Gnats account (which got revived in a Twitter feud between the Fireflies and the RiverDogs) has more followers than the Fireflies. So we still have a ways to go, but we're respectable in reaching the community. As much as I don't like the RiverDogs, they are the best at marketing themselves to the community and thus lead in Twitter followers (possibly because some Yankee fans follow their affiliates as well, although I'm not sure how many Yankee fans care about MiLB). Another Charleston in West Virginia is best at getting Twitter followers (11th in Class A) despite low fan turnout (23rd in Class A). That is largely because the Power are perhaps the most important sports team to the biggest city in West Virginia, and might get better turnout at games if not for bad weather (the recent floods being an extreme example of that). On the flip side, Greensboro has the 3rd best attendance in Class A but the sixth worst in getting Twitter followers. If I had to guess, it's because while the Grasshoppers get good support from Greensboro they don't get support from neighboring communities who mostly have their own teams at least at the summer collegiate level. With both attendance and Twitter followers, the top half of the Midwest League is better than nearly everybody in the SAL while the bottom half of the SAL gets better support than the bottom half of the Midwest League.
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
All-Time Firefly Player Standings (through June 26)
It's now time to check in with the All-Time Player Standings, which don't vary that greatly with only four games completed in the second half so far. Those four games were not good, with the Fireflies getting swept by Augusta at home to continue the struggles in Columbia. As a result, few players gained many points with some losing them. To refresh, here is how the points system is calculated:
Batters:
(TB + R + RBI) * 5
(BB + HBP) * 3
SB * 10
2 point penalty for each 0 for 1 at-bat, with an additional point penalty for a strikeout.
5 point penalty for getting caught stealing
Pitchers:
5 points for each out recorded while on the mound, with a 3 point bonus for it coming by strikeout.
10 point penalty for allowing an earned run
5 point penalty for giving up a hit
3 point penalty for walking or hitting a batter
30 point bonus for getting the official win or save
15 point penalty for getting the official loss
Okay, with that set, here we go...
1. P.J. Conlon, 1,041
Conlon was promoted last Thursday, so any additional statistics he has will come in the Former Fireflies Report (unless he gets demoted back here). Yet even without adding to his statistics, Conlon has a commanding lead in his point total for best Firefly. And unless Palsha keeps going strong without getting promoted or unless Thompson can comeback strong from injury, there is a good chance that even at the end of the season Conlon will be selected by the point system as the Firefly of the Year.
2. Alex Palsha, 715
Unfortunately Palsha didn't have any save opportunities last weekend but looked good in his one inning pitched.
3. Kevin Canelon, 694
Fianlly got to see Canelon pitch, and he got through until a bad 6th inning where a HR that could have gone either fair or foul scored three runs. With the lack of runs by the Firefly offense, that meant a loss for Canelon and his ERA dropped slightly. But with Conlon promoted Canelon may still be the best starter at keeping opposing hitters off balance.
4. David Thompson, 675
I'll just say that with Siena promoted the Fireflies need him back badly. And since I first wrote that, he came off the DL for a big night tonight against Hickory. Glad to see you back, DT.
5. Vinny Siena, 645
For those who look at conventional batting stats, Siena's line (.291 with no home runs and 13 RBIs) wasn't that impressive during his time as a Firefly. But his OPS was .834, boosted by a .435 OBP. Perhaps he might struggle at higher levels getting walks against pitchers with better control, but he seems to still be working pitchers early in the FSL.
6. Joe Shaw, 513
Shaw had a bad outing Thursday, but not very bad at least. He's 4-5 with a 4.41 ERA, which at least keeps the Fireflies in games that he pitches. He could get more effective with more work by the coaching staff on his mechanics.
7. Tyler Bashlor, 508
I generally don't like power pitchers who have questionable control, but I've enjoyed watching Bashlor the few times I've seen him pitch so far. He has often come into games with the Fireflies behind and keeps them in it, winning twice in Asheville and almost last Saturday. He does walk batters but never grooves it after getting behind in the count and does what he needs to do to get zeroes in the inning column when he pitches. If he can keep his pitches to a minimum per batter, he should continue to succeed after coming back from injuries the last couple years.
8. Tyler Badamo, 506
Badamo did reasonably okay Sunday, giving up a lot of hits again but only two runs in just over five innings and avoiding the official loss. He did have to leave Sunday after getting injured so we'll see how he does coming back from that on Friday.
9. J.C. Rodriguez, 495
He didn't have a particularly good weekend in the sweep, and his average is back under .250 again. He's probably the best hitter still of anybody on the active Fireflies' roster, which unfortunately isn't much of a compliment right now.
10. Kevin Kaczmarski, 463
Kacz is probably the best contact hitter on the team right now after Siena's promotion and Thompson going on the DL again. He's hitting .264, a big improvement from earlier in the season and more in line with how he did batting for Evansville. He's not much of a power hitter but does have tools to go with his average including speed and fielding. His biggest problem as a prospect may be his age (24) is a bit high for Class A, which could lead to the Mets promoting him soon to see how he does against players closer to him in age.
11. Seth Davis, 416
Davis isn't a physically imposing pitcher, but he's a lefty who can work multiple innings out of the bullpen which could make him valuable as a specialist down the road.
12. Dash Winningham, 379
His power is finally starting to come around. That said, his ability to hit for contact seems to be going down making his recent showings a bit of a wash.
13. Christian Montgomery. 341
A very similar pitcher to Bashlor, and is often used in similar situations to Bashlor as well. Yet Montgomery makes me a bit more nervous than Bashlor, as Montgomery has gotten blasted when falling behind in the count. That said, he seems to be getting better lately at avoiding problems. Noticed that he is suspended, not sure why yet.
14. Craig Missigman, 338
Missigman was very erratic early in the season but seems to have settled down and is basically an ordinary middle reliever right now.
15. Chase Ingram, 334
Ingram lost 131 points over the past week and has gone from 9th to 15th on this list, his worst position of the season. That is because he gave up 11 runs in less than four innings on Friday. He managed to go 90 pitches despite having the kind of night pitchers never want to have. That's probably because Leger or whoever in the organization is managing playing time for prospects always wants guys to go at least 80+ pitches even on nights when they don't have it. As a result, Ingram is now 4-6 with a 5.48 ERA. I'm not sure that letting a pitcher stay in to take a beating helps his development. I can see keeping Ingram in the rotation, but you don't want somebody's stats to take that big a hit over one outing.
16. Jeff Diehl, 320
Diehl is the best power hitter on the Fireflies, which is very relative because that's only 7 home runs. Diehl's not even on pace for 15 home runs despite leading the team. His HR total is not good enough to makeup for a .225 average and a 33.8% strikeout rate. Those numbers have been slightly improving however, so there is still time for him to come around.
17. Johnny Magliozzi, 318
Magliozzi has brought his ERA down to 3.86. He's still not who you want to see coming out of the bullpen, but the bullpen as a whole has been making great strides compared to the hitters. Magliozzi made a surprise appearance on offense when he pinch-ran for Natanael Ramos in the 9th as the potential winning run. Had no idea that Magliozzi was faster than Ramos or even Patrick Mazeika who was available on the bench. Unfortunately the Fireflies couldn't hit after that as it would have been a moment of glory to watch Magliozzi run home for the win.
18. Joe Tuschak, 295
While most Fireflies stayed about the same in their point values or went down, Tuschak went up as he actually had a pretty good weekend. He's been in the minors for quite a while now, so he needs to be making strides as he is now as old as most college prospects.
19. Ivan Wilson, 277
Wilson on the other hand did not have a good weekend as his batting average dropped under the Mendoza Line to .197. His .628 OPS is at least credible, but it's not what you want to see from a player drafted in the third round. Wilson's playing about where you would expect from a 21-year old, but not from somebody drafted as high as he was (the highest of all Fireflies this year except for the quickly promoted Andrew Church). He has shown big potential in bursts though and has delivered some crucial big his this year when I have seen him on the road, but not so much at home.
Since I wrote this I found out that he has apparently left the team. That's a shame, as he still had potential being younger than the college guys. Maybe some of the fans quoting Cast Away by shouting "Wilson!" every time he strikes out got to him. The First Firefly is also the first Firefly out of professional baseball, and that is sad. My fondest memory of him came just over a week ago in Asheville, when a Kingsport Mets fan who called him "Pookie"predicted he would hit the winning home run in the 9th, and he did just that. We'll miss you Pookie.
20. Milton Ramos, 241
Not only did his batting stats drop a slight amount this weekend, he made two crucial errors that cost the Fireflies the game in the 7th inning on Sunday. He's still 20 and still has a lot of potential, so as I've said before I don't see him being released soon. But I am starting to wonder if there are any shortstops on the Rookie or Short A Mets teams that is worthy of a shot at Class A, and perhaps Ramos could be sent down to the level he skipped in Brooklyn. I don't see that as likely, but he probably won't be moving up unless somebody in the Mets organization is particularly impressed with him.
21. Andrew Church, 240
Church was the stereotypical minor leaguer in making only two starts with the Fireflies. That's actually not as common though as people with a casual understanding of MiLB believe though.
22. Luis Ortega, 193
At times he looks like he is able to fill in Thompson's shoes quite nicely. But he hasn't kept his power numbers going after a good start and his average is down to .248. He's earned a spot in the lineup for the rest of the season most likely however, not just for his bat but how he handles the hot corner.
23. Patrick Mazeika, 176
Like Ortega, Mazeika looked like he could be an instant star when he arrived in Columbia but hasn't stayed that way. He's still batting .255 with an OPS of .679, which makes him by far the best option at catcher.
24. Tyler Moore, 162
He's still here, but barely gets any playing time anymore buried on the depth chart behind Mazeika and even Natanael Ramos.
25. Vicente Lupo, 131
Like Tuschak, Lupo put up a big week while his teammates faltered. He's now batting .222 with an OPS of .689, respectable numbers if he can develop another tool.
26. Tucker Tharp, 110
While some casual fans think Church getting promoted after two starts is routine in the minors, others aren't that aware of such happenings. Take for example my conversation of the parking attendant, who asked me after the first two games of the series if there were any lineup problems or was Augusta really just that good. I told him that the second best hitter (Siena) and the best pitcher (Conlon) got promoted. "Wow!, he said, "what about that guy who got hit in the face (Tharp)? When is he coming back?" I told him he was also at High A and the attendant was amazed and felt like the whole team had been called up. Well, not everybody anyway, just a few.
27. Gaby Almonte, 105
Almonte will be higher next time I do this list, as he pitched a 5 inning no-decision since I compiled the scores with just 1 run and he's still pretty new. Almonte is though old (23) to be just starting at Class A, so the pressure will be on him to succeed here.
28. Thomas McIlraith, 86
Hopefully he can still come back strong after getting injured as the rotation could use some help with Conlon getting promoted.
29. Enmanuel Zabala, 38
After only coming up as an injury replacement for Kaczmarski/Tharp, Zabala has returned! And this time I got his first name spelled correctly as I missed the n as it looks like a m as is the case with that name typically. So sorry for that in past posts, Enmanuel.
30. Natanael Ramos, 31
He's been on the DL much of the season, but seems to have overtaken Tyler Moore for the backup position to Mazeika behind the plate. He has looked okay at times, hope to see some productive games from him.
31. Witt Haggard, 10
Had a tough loss Sunday after Ramos made two errors at short. So I'll break a tie on his behalf and give him a higher spot over Jose Garcia as he deserves some recognition for making strides after a poor start and a DL stint early this season.
32. Jose Garcia, 10
He was batting only .200 when he went on the DL and when he comes back will have to beat three catchers for playing time. He's only 21 however and manages his pitchers well so I suspect we'll see him around later.
33. Nicco Blank, -14
Hopefully he can be like Haggard and recover nicely and get back to Columbia and do well. Hopefully he can like Zabala prove in Brooklyn he should get back down here.
Batters:
(TB + R + RBI) * 5
(BB + HBP) * 3
SB * 10
2 point penalty for each 0 for 1 at-bat, with an additional point penalty for a strikeout.
5 point penalty for getting caught stealing
Pitchers:
5 points for each out recorded while on the mound, with a 3 point bonus for it coming by strikeout.
10 point penalty for allowing an earned run
5 point penalty for giving up a hit
3 point penalty for walking or hitting a batter
30 point bonus for getting the official win or save
15 point penalty for getting the official loss
Okay, with that set, here we go...
1. P.J. Conlon, 1,041
Conlon was promoted last Thursday, so any additional statistics he has will come in the Former Fireflies Report (unless he gets demoted back here). Yet even without adding to his statistics, Conlon has a commanding lead in his point total for best Firefly. And unless Palsha keeps going strong without getting promoted or unless Thompson can comeback strong from injury, there is a good chance that even at the end of the season Conlon will be selected by the point system as the Firefly of the Year.
2. Alex Palsha, 715
Unfortunately Palsha didn't have any save opportunities last weekend but looked good in his one inning pitched.
3. Kevin Canelon, 694
Fianlly got to see Canelon pitch, and he got through until a bad 6th inning where a HR that could have gone either fair or foul scored three runs. With the lack of runs by the Firefly offense, that meant a loss for Canelon and his ERA dropped slightly. But with Conlon promoted Canelon may still be the best starter at keeping opposing hitters off balance.
4. David Thompson, 675
I'll just say that with Siena promoted the Fireflies need him back badly. And since I first wrote that, he came off the DL for a big night tonight against Hickory. Glad to see you back, DT.
5. Vinny Siena, 645
For those who look at conventional batting stats, Siena's line (.291 with no home runs and 13 RBIs) wasn't that impressive during his time as a Firefly. But his OPS was .834, boosted by a .435 OBP. Perhaps he might struggle at higher levels getting walks against pitchers with better control, but he seems to still be working pitchers early in the FSL.
6. Joe Shaw, 513
Shaw had a bad outing Thursday, but not very bad at least. He's 4-5 with a 4.41 ERA, which at least keeps the Fireflies in games that he pitches. He could get more effective with more work by the coaching staff on his mechanics.
7. Tyler Bashlor, 508
I generally don't like power pitchers who have questionable control, but I've enjoyed watching Bashlor the few times I've seen him pitch so far. He has often come into games with the Fireflies behind and keeps them in it, winning twice in Asheville and almost last Saturday. He does walk batters but never grooves it after getting behind in the count and does what he needs to do to get zeroes in the inning column when he pitches. If he can keep his pitches to a minimum per batter, he should continue to succeed after coming back from injuries the last couple years.
8. Tyler Badamo, 506
Badamo did reasonably okay Sunday, giving up a lot of hits again but only two runs in just over five innings and avoiding the official loss. He did have to leave Sunday after getting injured so we'll see how he does coming back from that on Friday.
9. J.C. Rodriguez, 495
He didn't have a particularly good weekend in the sweep, and his average is back under .250 again. He's probably the best hitter still of anybody on the active Fireflies' roster, which unfortunately isn't much of a compliment right now.
10. Kevin Kaczmarski, 463
Kacz is probably the best contact hitter on the team right now after Siena's promotion and Thompson going on the DL again. He's hitting .264, a big improvement from earlier in the season and more in line with how he did batting for Evansville. He's not much of a power hitter but does have tools to go with his average including speed and fielding. His biggest problem as a prospect may be his age (24) is a bit high for Class A, which could lead to the Mets promoting him soon to see how he does against players closer to him in age.
11. Seth Davis, 416
Davis isn't a physically imposing pitcher, but he's a lefty who can work multiple innings out of the bullpen which could make him valuable as a specialist down the road.
12. Dash Winningham, 379
His power is finally starting to come around. That said, his ability to hit for contact seems to be going down making his recent showings a bit of a wash.
13. Christian Montgomery. 341
A very similar pitcher to Bashlor, and is often used in similar situations to Bashlor as well. Yet Montgomery makes me a bit more nervous than Bashlor, as Montgomery has gotten blasted when falling behind in the count. That said, he seems to be getting better lately at avoiding problems. Noticed that he is suspended, not sure why yet.
14. Craig Missigman, 338
Missigman was very erratic early in the season but seems to have settled down and is basically an ordinary middle reliever right now.
15. Chase Ingram, 334
Ingram lost 131 points over the past week and has gone from 9th to 15th on this list, his worst position of the season. That is because he gave up 11 runs in less than four innings on Friday. He managed to go 90 pitches despite having the kind of night pitchers never want to have. That's probably because Leger or whoever in the organization is managing playing time for prospects always wants guys to go at least 80+ pitches even on nights when they don't have it. As a result, Ingram is now 4-6 with a 5.48 ERA. I'm not sure that letting a pitcher stay in to take a beating helps his development. I can see keeping Ingram in the rotation, but you don't want somebody's stats to take that big a hit over one outing.
16. Jeff Diehl, 320
Diehl is the best power hitter on the Fireflies, which is very relative because that's only 7 home runs. Diehl's not even on pace for 15 home runs despite leading the team. His HR total is not good enough to makeup for a .225 average and a 33.8% strikeout rate. Those numbers have been slightly improving however, so there is still time for him to come around.
17. Johnny Magliozzi, 318
Magliozzi has brought his ERA down to 3.86. He's still not who you want to see coming out of the bullpen, but the bullpen as a whole has been making great strides compared to the hitters. Magliozzi made a surprise appearance on offense when he pinch-ran for Natanael Ramos in the 9th as the potential winning run. Had no idea that Magliozzi was faster than Ramos or even Patrick Mazeika who was available on the bench. Unfortunately the Fireflies couldn't hit after that as it would have been a moment of glory to watch Magliozzi run home for the win.
18. Joe Tuschak, 295
While most Fireflies stayed about the same in their point values or went down, Tuschak went up as he actually had a pretty good weekend. He's been in the minors for quite a while now, so he needs to be making strides as he is now as old as most college prospects.
19. Ivan Wilson, 277
Wilson on the other hand did not have a good weekend as his batting average dropped under the Mendoza Line to .197. His .628 OPS is at least credible, but it's not what you want to see from a player drafted in the third round. Wilson's playing about where you would expect from a 21-year old, but not from somebody drafted as high as he was (the highest of all Fireflies this year except for the quickly promoted Andrew Church). He has shown big potential in bursts though and has delivered some crucial big his this year when I have seen him on the road, but not so much at home.
Since I wrote this I found out that he has apparently left the team. That's a shame, as he still had potential being younger than the college guys. Maybe some of the fans quoting Cast Away by shouting "Wilson!" every time he strikes out got to him. The First Firefly is also the first Firefly out of professional baseball, and that is sad. My fondest memory of him came just over a week ago in Asheville, when a Kingsport Mets fan who called him "Pookie"predicted he would hit the winning home run in the 9th, and he did just that. We'll miss you Pookie.
20. Milton Ramos, 241
Not only did his batting stats drop a slight amount this weekend, he made two crucial errors that cost the Fireflies the game in the 7th inning on Sunday. He's still 20 and still has a lot of potential, so as I've said before I don't see him being released soon. But I am starting to wonder if there are any shortstops on the Rookie or Short A Mets teams that is worthy of a shot at Class A, and perhaps Ramos could be sent down to the level he skipped in Brooklyn. I don't see that as likely, but he probably won't be moving up unless somebody in the Mets organization is particularly impressed with him.
21. Andrew Church, 240
Church was the stereotypical minor leaguer in making only two starts with the Fireflies. That's actually not as common though as people with a casual understanding of MiLB believe though.
22. Luis Ortega, 193
At times he looks like he is able to fill in Thompson's shoes quite nicely. But he hasn't kept his power numbers going after a good start and his average is down to .248. He's earned a spot in the lineup for the rest of the season most likely however, not just for his bat but how he handles the hot corner.
23. Patrick Mazeika, 176
Like Ortega, Mazeika looked like he could be an instant star when he arrived in Columbia but hasn't stayed that way. He's still batting .255 with an OPS of .679, which makes him by far the best option at catcher.
24. Tyler Moore, 162
He's still here, but barely gets any playing time anymore buried on the depth chart behind Mazeika and even Natanael Ramos.
25. Vicente Lupo, 131
Like Tuschak, Lupo put up a big week while his teammates faltered. He's now batting .222 with an OPS of .689, respectable numbers if he can develop another tool.
26. Tucker Tharp, 110
While some casual fans think Church getting promoted after two starts is routine in the minors, others aren't that aware of such happenings. Take for example my conversation of the parking attendant, who asked me after the first two games of the series if there were any lineup problems or was Augusta really just that good. I told him that the second best hitter (Siena) and the best pitcher (Conlon) got promoted. "Wow!, he said, "what about that guy who got hit in the face (Tharp)? When is he coming back?" I told him he was also at High A and the attendant was amazed and felt like the whole team had been called up. Well, not everybody anyway, just a few.
27. Gaby Almonte, 105
Almonte will be higher next time I do this list, as he pitched a 5 inning no-decision since I compiled the scores with just 1 run and he's still pretty new. Almonte is though old (23) to be just starting at Class A, so the pressure will be on him to succeed here.
28. Thomas McIlraith, 86
Hopefully he can still come back strong after getting injured as the rotation could use some help with Conlon getting promoted.
29. Enmanuel Zabala, 38
After only coming up as an injury replacement for Kaczmarski/Tharp, Zabala has returned! And this time I got his first name spelled correctly as I missed the n as it looks like a m as is the case with that name typically. So sorry for that in past posts, Enmanuel.
30. Natanael Ramos, 31
He's been on the DL much of the season, but seems to have overtaken Tyler Moore for the backup position to Mazeika behind the plate. He has looked okay at times, hope to see some productive games from him.
31. Witt Haggard, 10
Had a tough loss Sunday after Ramos made two errors at short. So I'll break a tie on his behalf and give him a higher spot over Jose Garcia as he deserves some recognition for making strides after a poor start and a DL stint early this season.
32. Jose Garcia, 10
He was batting only .200 when he went on the DL and when he comes back will have to beat three catchers for playing time. He's only 21 however and manages his pitchers well so I suspect we'll see him around later.
33. Nicco Blank, -14
Hopefully he can be like Haggard and recover nicely and get back to Columbia and do well. Hopefully he can like Zabala prove in Brooklyn he should get back down here.
Saturday, June 25, 2016
Former Fireflies Report
After over two months of existence, the time has finally come! It's now time to take a look at Fireflies who no longer play for the Fireflies. The material for this comes from having three players promoted to High A this week: Tucker Tharp who came off the DL, and Vinny Siena and P.J. Conlon who were rewarded for big seasons for the Fireflies. I'll take a look at hitters and pitchers separately, sorted by "adjusted score". This is the same score I use for the player standings multiplied by the level they are at: doubled for each level above regular Class A, and halved for each level below it. For the purposes of tracking players, I consider the NYPL to be Low A, even though the SAL is often referred as such to that. Technically there are levels of Class A below and above the SAL, so the Fireflies are basically "Middle A". So, let's take a look now:
Hitters
Emmanuel Zabala has the highest score, but not when adjusted due to the fact that he is currently playing below the Fireflies' level. He started delivering good power numbers to start the New York-Penn League season, but now has slumped badly. If he recovers I could see him replacing Lupo soon as a Firefly.
Tucker Tharp has had an okay week for the St. Lucie Mets after coming off the DL, and is probably the best of former Firefly hitters. He has had an excellent year aside from ball-to-the-face, which is a pleasant surprise to see.
Vinny Siena has been doing what one would expect from him based on his last few weeks as a Firefly: struggling to hit the ball but getting on base. As one would expect, there is a transition in facing better pitchers in the FSL than he saw in the SAL. Hopefully he will get better as the season progresses.
Pitchers
Andrew Church, the first Firefly promoted, has also been the best former Firefly. He was of course also only very briefly a Firefly. And he will likely be the first Firefly who makes the majors, one who most Firefly fans would not have had a chance to catch including myself. Darn.
P.J. Conlon was promoted on the basis of being the greatest Firefly of them all. His first start in PSL was last night and went how one might expect, not overpowering but good enough to keep St. Lucie in the game allow them to win in the 9th. He also will have to adjust to better batters, and it will be interesting to see if his stuff is good enough for him to continue to be successful.
Nicco Blank so far is making a nice recovery in Brooklyn after a few bad outings for the Fireflies. Of course he also started smoothly with the Fireflies before he came undone. Hopefully he will get more quality relief appearances for the Mets to see what he is capable of.
Of the 33 Fireflies to play a game this year, 24 of them are still an active Firefly. 4 of them are in High A and 2 of them are in Low (or Short Season) A and were featured above. And 3 are currently on the DL (Jose Garcia, Thomas McIlraith, and David Thompson).
Hitters
| Batter | Level | TB | R | RBI | BB/HBP | SB | CS | 0 for 1 | SO | Score | Adjusted Score | AVG | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Tharp | High A | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 64 | 0.333 | 0 | 0.762 |
| Emmanuel Zabala | Low A | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 44 | 22 | 0.133 | 1 | 0.439 |
| Vinny Siena | High A | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0.111 | 0 | 0.444 |
Emmanuel Zabala has the highest score, but not when adjusted due to the fact that he is currently playing below the Fireflies' level. He started delivering good power numbers to start the New York-Penn League season, but now has slumped badly. If he recovers I could see him replacing Lupo soon as a Firefly.
Tucker Tharp has had an okay week for the St. Lucie Mets after coming off the DL, and is probably the best of former Firefly hitters. He has had an excellent year aside from ball-to-the-face, which is a pleasant surprise to see.
Vinny Siena has been doing what one would expect from him based on his last few weeks as a Firefly: struggling to hit the ball but getting on base. As one would expect, there is a transition in facing better pitchers in the FSL than he saw in the SAL. Hopefully he will get better as the season progresses.
Pitchers
| Pitcher | Level | Outs | K | ER | H | BB/HBP | W | S | L | Score | Adjusted Score | ERA | WHIP | K/9IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Church | High A | 62 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 432 | 3.05 | 1.26 | 5.23 |
| P.J. Conlon | High A | 21 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 106 | 2.57 | 1.29 | 3.86 |
| Nicco Blank | Low A | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 25 | 2.45 | 1.09 | 3.5 |
Andrew Church, the first Firefly promoted, has also been the best former Firefly. He was of course also only very briefly a Firefly. And he will likely be the first Firefly who makes the majors, one who most Firefly fans would not have had a chance to catch including myself. Darn.
P.J. Conlon was promoted on the basis of being the greatest Firefly of them all. His first start in PSL was last night and went how one might expect, not overpowering but good enough to keep St. Lucie in the game allow them to win in the 9th. He also will have to adjust to better batters, and it will be interesting to see if his stuff is good enough for him to continue to be successful.
Nicco Blank so far is making a nice recovery in Brooklyn after a few bad outings for the Fireflies. Of course he also started smoothly with the Fireflies before he came undone. Hopefully he will get more quality relief appearances for the Mets to see what he is capable of.
Of the 33 Fireflies to play a game this year, 24 of them are still an active Firefly. 4 of them are in High A and 2 of them are in Low (or Short Season) A and were featured above. And 3 are currently on the DL (Jose Garcia, Thomas McIlraith, and David Thompson).
Thursday, June 23, 2016
Previewing the Augusta GreenJackets
The Fireflies play the Augusta GreenJackets tonight after the two teams tied for third in the first half of the SAL South. So this series will be an important early test to set the tone for the second half. I did not do a preview when Augusta came here since I was not going, and while I did go to one game in Augusta I generally don't preview away series. So now it's time to take a look at the GreenJackets, which are the closest opponent in the SAL to Columbia, even closer than Charleston or Greenville which are in-state. The two best players on the GreenJackets are SAL batting leader Miguel Gomez and former third round pick Dylan Davis. Both players are older than most in the league and have not yet been able to successfully stay above the Middle Class A level however. Not much local interest in GreenJacket players, though former Furman pitcher Matt Solter is buried deep in the bullpen and closer Caleb Smith was born in Columbia and grew up in Aiken. Here is a look at the roster breakdown of the GreenJackets:
| Number | Player | Position | AB/IP | OPS/W | AVG/L | HR/S | RBI/ERA | Round Picked | Age | College | Home State/Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucius Fox | SS | 176 | 0.605 | 0.21 | 2 | 11 | IFA | 18 | Bahamas | |
| 2 | Seth Harrison | CF | 217 | 0.745 | 0.272 | 3 | 25 | 7 | 23 | Louisiana-Lafayette | Texas |
| 5 | Jalen Miller | SS | 234 | 0.604 | 0.239 | 1 | 28 | 3 | 19 | Georgia | |
| 9 | Miguel Gomez | C | 182 | 0.87 | 0.346 | 4 | 29 | IFA | 23 | Dominican Republic | |
| 10 | Johneshwy Fargas | CF | 64 | 0.65 | 0.234 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 21 | Puerto Rico | |
| 11 | Dylan Davis | OF | 214 | 0.862 | 0.285 | 8 | 40 | 3 | 22 | Oregon State | Washington |
| 12 | Junior Arias | CF | 33 | 0.762 | 0.273 | 0 | 4 | IFA | 24 | Dominican Republic | |
| 14 | Tyler Cyr | P | 48.67 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2.4 | 10 | 23 | Embry-Riddle | California |
| 15 | Shawon Dunston | LF | 25 | 0.801 | 0.28 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 23 | California | |
| 16 | Matt Winn | C | 147 | 0.634 | 0.204 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 23 | VMI | Virginia |
| 19 | Luis Pino | P | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.73 | IFA | 21 | Mexico | |
| 20 | Jake McCasland | P | 41.33 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.31 | 26 | 24 | New Mexico | New Mexico |
| 21 | Connor Kaden | P | 43.67 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4.12 | 27 | 23 | Wake Forest | New Jersey |
| 22 | Richard Amion | 2B | 49 | 0.474 | 0.204 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 23 | Alabama State | Florida |
| 23 | Michael Connolly | P | 61 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2.8 | 27 | 24 | Maine | Massachusetts |
| 25 | Skyler Ewing | 1B | 92 | 0.57 | 0.217 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 23 | Rice | Texas |
| 28 | Matt Pare | C | 43 | 0.627 | 0.186 | 2 | 8 | NDFA | 25 | Boston College | Florida |
| 31 | Heath Slatton | P | 15 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3.6 | 18 | 22 | Middle Tennessee State | Tennessee |
| 32 | Matt Solter | P | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.36 | NDFA | 23 | Furman | North Carolina |
| 33 | Caleb Smith | P | 21.67 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2.49 | 17 | 23 | USC Aiken | South Carolina (South Aiken) |
| 34 | Domenic Mazza | P | 10.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.23 | 22 | 21 | UC Santa Barbara | California |
| 38 | Cory Taylor | P | 59 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1.83 | 8 | 22 | Dallas Baptist | Texas |
| 43 | Ryan Halstead | P | 25.67 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7.71 | 21 | 24 | Indiana | California |
| 47 | Ryan Koziol | P | 40.33 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2.45 | NDFA | 22 | Illinois State | Illinois |
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