Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Class A Standings and Attendance (updated through June 28)

Here's a look at the 2016 standings for both Class A leagues. I took the overall standings and noted the leaders for both halves. This is in contrast to most official MiLB websites which list only the early Second Half numbers with the First Half champion noted, and also different from websites like Baseball Reference which don't make any note of the half winners.


Midwest League     
Eastern Division     
TeamAffiliateWLPCTGB
South Bend Cubs*CHC46290.613--
Lake County CaptainsCLE43330.5663.5
West Michigan WhitecapsDET40330.5485
Lansing Lugnuts**TOR41350.5395.5
Fort Wayne TinCapsSDP40360.5266.5
Bowling Green Hot RodsTBR39360.527
Great Lakes LoonsLAD32440.42114.5
Dayton DragonsCIN22540.28924.5
Western Division     
TeamAffiliateWLPCTGB
Clinton LumberKings**SEA45310.592--
Peoria Chiefs*STL42340.5533
Cedar Rapids KernelsMIN40350.5334.5
Wisconsin Timber RattlersMIL37390.4878
Beloit SnappersOAK35400.4679.5
Kane County CougarsARI35410.46110
Burlington BeesLAA34420.44711
Quad Cities River BanditsHOU33420.4411.5
      
South Atlantic League     
Northern Division     
TeamAffiliateWLPCTGB
Hagerstown Suns*WSN47290.618--
Delmarva ShorebirdsBAL43310.5813
Greensboro Grasshoppers**MIA42330.564.5
Hickory CrawdadsTEX40360.5267
West Virginia PowerPIT38370.5078.5
Lakewood BlueClawsPHI33420.4413.5
Kannapolis IntimidatorsCHW28480.36819
Southern Division     
TeamAffiliateWLPCTGB
Charleston RiverDogs*NYY43310.581--
Greenville DriveBOS40340.5413
Augusta GreenJackets**SFG41350.5393
Asheville TouristsCOL37380.4936.5
Columbia FirefliesNYM37390.4877
Rome BravesATL31440.41312.5
Lexington LegendsKCR26490.34717.5
      
*=First Half Winner     
**=Leads Second Half    


So unfortunately, while it's still early in the second half it doesn't look like the Fireflies will make the playoffs. :-( So let's now look at the attendance figures, where the Fireflies are treading in the high middle of the pack. I decided to include Twitter followers of each team that I looked up a few weeks ago (so they are slightly out of date), which I initially intended to be used in a Sunday feature but decided to include in the attendance totals instead.


TeamFollowersTwitter RankAttendanceAttendance RankDifference
Dayton9503158235114
Fort Wayne279342564620
Greensboro6795255108322
Lakewood170695493741
Kane County1184710490355
Greenville22707448326-2
South Bend24819345287-4
West Michigan16537644608-2
Charleston28262143409-8
Lansing9940134220103
Columbia8269203840119
Lexington8205213744129
Peoria128948325013-5
Delmarva125429316214-5
Wisconsin131227313015-8
Quad Cities9404163100160
Bowling Green8626192674172
Augusta6312262655188
Rome1158512257319-7
Asheville930917252420-3
Lake County992214241921-7
Great Lakes8185222300220
West Virginia1184211222823-12
Cedar Rapids893418222224-6
Hickory745523215925-2
Clinton5723281689262
Kannapolis695424156027-3
Hagerstown605827106528-1
Burlington458629857290
Beloit454630795300


As you can see, there is a strong correlation between followers and fans at the games. There are exceptions to this, including the Fireflies which are 11th in attendance but 20th in Twitter followers. This is largely due to the newness of the team. I would like to see better marketing, which needs to emphasize the importance of the team to the overall community. But given that even the dead Sand Gnats account (which got revived in a Twitter feud between the Fireflies and the RiverDogs) has more followers than the Fireflies. So we still have a ways to go, but we're respectable in reaching the community. As much as I don't like the RiverDogs, they are the best at marketing themselves to the community and thus lead in Twitter followers (possibly because some Yankee fans follow their affiliates as well, although I'm not sure how many Yankee fans care about MiLB). Another Charleston in West Virginia is best at getting Twitter followers (11th in Class A) despite low fan turnout (23rd in Class A). That is largely because the Power are perhaps the most important sports team to the biggest city in West Virginia, and might get better turnout at games if not for bad weather (the recent floods being an extreme example of that). On the flip side, Greensboro has the 3rd best attendance in Class A but the sixth worst in getting Twitter followers. If I had to guess, it's because while the Grasshoppers get good support from Greensboro they don't get support from neighboring communities who mostly have their own teams at least at the summer collegiate level. With both attendance and Twitter followers, the top half of the Midwest League is better than nearly everybody in the SAL while the bottom half of the SAL gets better support than the bottom half of the Midwest League.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

All-Time Firefly Player Standings (through June 26)

It's now time to check in with the All-Time Player Standings, which don't vary that greatly with only four games completed in the second half so far. Those four games were not good, with the Fireflies getting swept by Augusta at home to continue the struggles in Columbia. As a result, few players gained many points with some losing them. To refresh, here is how the points system is calculated:

Batters:
(TB + R + RBI) * 5
(BB + HBP) * 3
SB * 10
2 point penalty for each 0 for 1 at-bat, with an additional point penalty for a strikeout.
5 point penalty for getting caught stealing

Pitchers:
5 points for each out recorded while on the mound, with a 3 point bonus for it coming by strikeout.
10 point penalty for allowing an earned run
5 point penalty for giving up a hit
3 point penalty for walking or hitting a batter
30 point bonus for getting the official win or save
15 point penalty for getting the official loss

Okay, with that set, here we go...

1. P.J. Conlon, 1,041
Conlon was promoted last Thursday, so any additional statistics he has will come in the Former Fireflies Report (unless he gets demoted back here). Yet even without adding to his statistics, Conlon has a commanding lead in his point total for best Firefly. And unless Palsha keeps going strong without getting promoted or unless Thompson can comeback strong from injury, there is a good chance that even at the end of the season Conlon will be selected by the point system as the Firefly of the Year.

2. Alex Palsha, 715
Unfortunately Palsha didn't have any save opportunities last weekend but looked good in his one inning pitched.

3. Kevin Canelon, 694
Fianlly got to see Canelon pitch, and he got through until a bad 6th inning where a HR that could have gone either fair or foul scored three runs. With the lack of runs by the Firefly offense, that meant a loss for Canelon and his ERA dropped slightly. But with Conlon promoted Canelon may still be the best starter at keeping opposing hitters off balance.

4. David Thompson, 675
I'll just say that with Siena promoted the Fireflies need him back badly. And since I first wrote that, he came off the DL for a big night tonight against Hickory. Glad to see you back, DT.

5. Vinny Siena, 645
For those who look at conventional batting stats, Siena's line (.291 with no home runs and 13 RBIs) wasn't that impressive during his time as a Firefly. But his OPS was .834, boosted by a .435 OBP. Perhaps he might struggle at higher levels getting walks against pitchers with better control, but he seems to still be working pitchers early in the FSL.

6. Joe Shaw, 513
Shaw had a bad outing Thursday, but not very bad at least. He's 4-5 with a 4.41 ERA, which at least keeps the Fireflies in games that he pitches. He could get more effective with more work by the coaching staff on his mechanics.

7. Tyler Bashlor, 508
I generally don't like power pitchers who have questionable control, but I've enjoyed watching Bashlor the few times I've seen him pitch so far. He has often come into games with the Fireflies behind and keeps them in it, winning twice in Asheville and almost last Saturday. He does walk batters but never grooves it after getting behind in the count and does what he needs to do to get zeroes in the inning column when he pitches. If he can keep his pitches to a minimum per batter, he should continue to succeed after coming back from injuries the last couple years.

8. Tyler Badamo, 506
Badamo did reasonably okay Sunday, giving up a lot of hits again but only two runs in just over five innings and avoiding the official loss. He did have to leave Sunday after getting injured so we'll see how he does coming back from that on Friday.

9. J.C. Rodriguez, 495
He didn't have a particularly good weekend in the sweep, and his average is back under .250 again. He's probably the best hitter still of anybody on the active Fireflies' roster, which unfortunately isn't much of a compliment right now.

10. Kevin Kaczmarski, 463
Kacz is probably the best contact hitter on the team right now after Siena's promotion and Thompson going on the DL again. He's hitting .264, a big improvement from earlier in the season and more in line with how he did batting for Evansville. He's not much of a power hitter but does have tools to go with his average including speed and fielding. His biggest problem as a prospect may be his age (24) is a bit high for Class A, which could lead to the Mets promoting him soon to see how he does against players closer to him in age.

11. Seth Davis, 416
Davis isn't a physically imposing pitcher, but he's a lefty who can work multiple innings out of the bullpen which could make him valuable as a specialist down the road.

12. Dash Winningham, 379
His power is finally starting to come around. That said, his ability to hit for contact seems to be going down making his recent showings a bit of a wash.

13. Christian Montgomery. 341
A very similar pitcher to Bashlor, and is often used in similar situations to Bashlor as well. Yet Montgomery makes me a bit more nervous than Bashlor, as Montgomery has gotten blasted when falling behind in the count. That said, he seems to be getting better lately at avoiding problems. Noticed that he is suspended, not sure why yet.

14. Craig Missigman, 338
Missigman was very erratic early in the season but seems to have settled down and is basically an ordinary middle reliever right now.

15. Chase Ingram, 334
Ingram lost 131 points over the past week and has gone from 9th to 15th on this list, his worst position of the season. That is because he gave up 11 runs in less than four innings on Friday. He managed to go 90 pitches despite having the kind of night pitchers never want to have. That's probably because Leger or whoever in the organization is managing playing time for prospects always wants guys to go at least 80+ pitches even on nights when they don't have it. As a result, Ingram is now 4-6 with a 5.48 ERA. I'm not sure that letting a pitcher stay in to take a beating helps his development. I can see keeping Ingram in the rotation, but you don't want somebody's stats to take that big a hit over one outing.

16. Jeff Diehl, 320
Diehl is the best power hitter on the Fireflies, which is very relative because that's only 7 home runs. Diehl's not even on pace for 15 home runs despite leading the team. His HR total is not good enough to makeup for a .225 average and a 33.8% strikeout rate. Those numbers have been slightly improving however, so there is still time for him to come around.

17. Johnny Magliozzi, 318
Magliozzi has brought his ERA down to 3.86. He's still not who you want to see coming out of the bullpen, but the bullpen as a whole has been making great strides compared to the hitters. Magliozzi made a surprise appearance on offense when he pinch-ran for Natanael Ramos in the 9th as the potential winning run. Had no idea that Magliozzi was faster than Ramos or even Patrick Mazeika who was available on the bench. Unfortunately the Fireflies couldn't hit after that as it would have been a moment of glory to watch Magliozzi run home for the win.

18. Joe Tuschak, 295
While most Fireflies stayed about the same in their point values or went down, Tuschak went up as he actually had a pretty good weekend. He's been in the minors for quite a while now, so he needs to be making strides as he is now as old as most college prospects.

19. Ivan Wilson, 277
Wilson on the other hand did not have a good weekend as his batting average dropped under the Mendoza Line to .197. His .628 OPS is at least credible, but it's not what you want to see from a player drafted in the third round. Wilson's playing about where you would expect from a 21-year old, but not from somebody drafted as high as he was (the highest of all Fireflies this year except for the quickly promoted Andrew Church). He has shown big potential in bursts though and has delivered some crucial big his this year when I have seen him on the road, but not so much at home.

Since I wrote this I found out that he has apparently left the team. That's a shame, as he still had potential being younger than the college guys. Maybe some of the fans quoting Cast Away by shouting "Wilson!" every time he strikes out got to him. The First Firefly is also the first Firefly out of professional baseball, and that is sad. My fondest memory of him came just over a week ago in Asheville, when a Kingsport Mets fan who called him "Pookie"predicted he would hit the winning home run in the 9th, and he did just that. We'll miss you Pookie.

20. Milton Ramos, 241
Not only did his batting stats drop a slight amount this weekend, he made two crucial errors that cost the Fireflies the game in the 7th inning on Sunday. He's still 20 and still has a lot of potential, so as I've said before I don't see him being released soon. But I am starting to wonder if there are any shortstops on the Rookie or Short A Mets teams that is worthy of a shot at Class A, and perhaps Ramos could be sent down to the level he skipped in Brooklyn. I don't see that as likely, but he probably won't be moving up unless somebody in the Mets organization is particularly impressed with him.

21. Andrew Church, 240
Church was the stereotypical minor leaguer in making only two starts with the Fireflies. That's actually not as common though as people with a casual understanding of MiLB believe though.

22. Luis Ortega, 193
At times he looks like he is able to fill in Thompson's shoes quite nicely. But he hasn't kept his power numbers going after a good start and his average is down to .248. He's earned a spot in the lineup for the rest of the season most likely however, not just for his bat but how he handles the hot corner.

23. Patrick Mazeika, 176
Like Ortega, Mazeika looked like he could be an instant star when he arrived in Columbia but hasn't stayed that way. He's still batting .255 with an OPS of .679, which makes him by far the best option at catcher.

24. Tyler Moore, 162
He's still here, but barely gets any playing time anymore buried on the depth chart behind Mazeika and even Natanael Ramos.

25. Vicente Lupo, 131
Like Tuschak, Lupo put up a big week while his teammates faltered. He's now batting .222 with an OPS of .689, respectable numbers if he can develop another tool.

26. Tucker Tharp, 110
While some casual fans think Church getting promoted after two starts is routine in the minors, others aren't that aware of such happenings. Take for example my conversation of the parking attendant, who asked me after the first two games of the series if there were any lineup problems or was Augusta really just that good. I told him that the second best hitter (Siena) and the best pitcher (Conlon) got promoted. "Wow!, he said, "what about that guy who got hit in the face (Tharp)? When is he coming back?" I told him he was also at High A and the attendant was amazed and felt like the whole team had been called up. Well, not everybody anyway, just a few.

27. Gaby Almonte, 105
Almonte will be higher next time I do this list, as he pitched a 5 inning no-decision since I compiled the scores with just 1 run and he's still pretty new. Almonte is though old (23) to be just starting at Class A, so the pressure will be on him to succeed here.

28. Thomas McIlraith, 86
Hopefully he can still come back strong after getting injured as the rotation could use some help with Conlon getting promoted.

29. Enmanuel Zabala, 38
After only coming up as an injury replacement for Kaczmarski/Tharp, Zabala has returned! And this time I got his first name spelled correctly as I missed the n as it looks like a m as is the case with that name typically. So sorry for that in past posts, Enmanuel.

30. Natanael Ramos, 31
He's been on the DL much of the season, but seems to have overtaken Tyler Moore for the backup position to Mazeika behind the plate. He has looked okay at times, hope to see some productive games from him.

31. Witt Haggard, 10
Had a tough loss Sunday after Ramos made two errors at short. So I'll break a tie on his behalf and give him a higher spot over Jose Garcia as he deserves some recognition for making strides after a poor start and a DL stint early this season.

32. Jose Garcia, 10
He was batting only .200 when he went on the DL and when he comes back will have to beat three catchers for playing time. He's only 21 however and manages his pitchers well so I suspect we'll see him around later.

33. Nicco Blank, -14
Hopefully he can be like Haggard and recover nicely and get back to Columbia and do well. Hopefully he can like Zabala prove in Brooklyn he should get back down here.

Saturday, June 25, 2016

Former Fireflies Report

After over two months of existence, the time has finally come! It's now time to take a look at Fireflies who no longer play for the Fireflies. The material for this comes from having three players promoted to High A this week: Tucker Tharp who came off the DL, and Vinny Siena and P.J. Conlon who were rewarded for big seasons for the Fireflies. I'll take a look at hitters and pitchers separately, sorted by "adjusted score". This is the same score I use for the player standings multiplied by the level they are at: doubled for each level above regular Class A, and halved for each level below it. For the purposes of tracking players, I consider the NYPL to be Low A, even though the SAL is often referred as such to that. Technically there are levels of Class A below and above the SAL, so the Fireflies are basically "Middle A". So, let's take a look now:

Hitters


BatterLevelTBRRBIBB/HBPSBCS0 for 1SOScoreAdjusted ScoreAVGHROPS
Tucker TharpHigh A4122108332640.33300.762
Emmanuel ZabalaLow A73333126844220.13310.439
Vinny SienaHigh A100310826120.11100.444


Emmanuel Zabala has the highest score, but not when adjusted due to the fact that he is currently playing below the Fireflies' level. He started delivering good power numbers to start the New York-Penn League season, but now has slumped badly. If he recovers I could see him replacing Lupo soon as a Firefly.
Tucker Tharp has had an okay week for the St. Lucie Mets after coming off the DL, and is probably the best of former Firefly hitters. He has had an excellent year aside from ball-to-the-face, which is a pleasant surprise to see.
Vinny Siena has been doing what one would expect from him based on his last few weeks as a Firefly: struggling to hit the ball but getting on base. As one would expect, there is a transition in facing better pitchers in the FSL than he saw in the SAL. Hopefully he will get better as the season progresses.

Pitchers


PitcherLevelOutsKERHBB/HBPWSLScoreAdjusted ScoreERAWHIPK/9IP
Andrew ChurchHigh A6212718101102164323.051.265.23
P.J. ConlonHigh A213272000531062.571.293.86
Nicco BlankLow A11712200050252.451.093.5


Andrew Church, the first Firefly promoted, has also been the best former Firefly. He was of course also only very briefly a Firefly. And he will likely be the first Firefly who makes the majors, one who most Firefly fans would not have had a chance to catch including myself. Darn.
P.J. Conlon was promoted on the basis of being the greatest Firefly of them all. His first start in PSL was last night and went how one might expect, not overpowering but good enough to keep St. Lucie in the game allow them to win in the 9th. He also will have to adjust to better batters, and it will be interesting to see if his stuff is good enough for him to continue to be successful.
Nicco Blank so far is making a nice recovery in Brooklyn after a few bad outings for the Fireflies. Of course he also started smoothly with the Fireflies before he came undone. Hopefully he will get more quality relief appearances for the Mets to see what he is capable of.

Of the 33 Fireflies to play a game this year, 24 of them are still an active Firefly. 4 of them are in High A and 2 of them are in Low (or Short Season) A and were featured above. And 3 are currently on the DL (Jose Garcia, Thomas McIlraith, and David Thompson).

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Previewing the Augusta GreenJackets

The Fireflies play the Augusta GreenJackets tonight after the two teams tied for third in the first half of the SAL South. So this series will be an important early test to set the tone for the second half. I did not do a preview when Augusta came here since I was not going, and while I did go to one game in Augusta I generally don't preview away series. So now it's time to take a look at the GreenJackets, which are the closest opponent in the SAL to Columbia, even closer than Charleston or Greenville which are in-state. The two best players on the GreenJackets are SAL batting leader Miguel Gomez and former third round pick Dylan Davis. Both players are older than most in the league and have not yet been able to successfully stay above the Middle Class A level however. Not much local interest in GreenJacket players, though former Furman pitcher Matt Solter is buried deep in the bullpen and closer Caleb Smith was born in Columbia and grew up in Aiken. Here is a look at the roster breakdown of the GreenJackets:


NumberPlayerPositionAB/IPOPS/WAVG/LHR/SRBI/ERARound PickedAgeCollegeHome State/Country
1Lucius FoxSS1760.6050.21211IFA18 Bahamas
2Seth HarrisonCF2170.7450.272325723Louisiana-LafayetteTexas
5Jalen MillerSS2340.6040.239128319 Georgia
9Miguel GomezC1820.870.346429IFA23 Dominican Republic
10Johneshwy FargasCF640.650.234191121 Puerto Rico
11Dylan DavisOF2140.8620.285840322Oregon StateWashington
12Junior AriasCF330.7620.27304IFA24 Dominican Republic
14Tyler CyrP48.673312.41023Embry-RiddleCalifornia
15Shawon DunstonLF250.8010.28141123 California
16Matt WinnC1470.6340.2045171423VMIVirginia
19Luis PinoP110005.73IFA21 Mexico
20Jake McCaslandP41.331231.312624New MexicoNew Mexico
21Connor KadenP43.674234.122723Wake ForestNew Jersey
22Richard Amion2B490.4740.204041923Alabama StateFlorida
23Michael ConnollyP614202.82724MaineMassachusetts
25Skyler Ewing1B920.570.21705623RiceTexas
28Matt PareC430.6270.18628NDFA25Boston CollegeFlorida
31Heath SlattonP151233.61822Middle Tennessee StateTennessee
32Matt SolterP141008.36NDFA23FurmanNorth Carolina
33Caleb SmithP21.671162.491723USC AikenSouth Carolina (South Aiken)
34Domenic MazzaP10.331005.232221UC Santa BarbaraCalifornia
38Cory TaylorP595201.83822Dallas BaptistTexas
43Ryan HalsteadP25.671347.712124IndianaCalifornia
47Ryan KoziolP40.333302.45NDFA22Illinois StateIllinois

First Half Standings and Attendance Recap

With the first half over, it's time to look at the standings and attendance to see how the Fireflies are doing. First, the standings:


North Division       
 TeamWLPCTGBHOMEAWAY
 Hagerstown Suns (WSH)43270.614-26-1117-16
 Delmarva Shorebirds (BAL)42270.6090.522-1120-16
 Greensboro Grasshoppers (MIA)38320.543519-1619-16
 Hickory Crawdads (TEX)38320.543516-1722-15
 West Virginia Power (PIT)35340.5077.519-1616-18
 Lakewood BlueClaws (PHI)29400.4213.518-1911-21
 Kannapolis Intimidators (CWS)24460.3431910-2514-21
South Division       
 TeamWLPCTGBHOMEAWAY
 Charleston RiverDogs (NYY)42270.609-23-1319-14
 Greenville Drive (BOS)37320.536519-1618-16
 Augusta GreenJackets (SF)36340.5146.519-1517-19
 Columbia Fireflies (NYM)36340.5146.516-1820-16
 Asheville Tourists (COL)34350.493819-1515-20
 Rome Braves (ATL)27420.3911510-2617-16
 Lexington Legends (KC)25440.3621712-2013-24



Unfortunately our rivals, the Charleston RiverDogs, won the first half South Division title. Last time they did so was in 2005 which I believe was their first year as a Yankee affiliate, so they were bound to do so at some point. The Yankees aren'ta team that invests much in their minor league system, but they seem to have placed their prospects they do have in Class A more so than the Mets have. Fireflies have to win the second half to make the playoffs, or if Charleston also wins the second half then just have to overtake the Drive in the overall standings. We played 70 games, which most SAL teams did not playing 69 instead because baseball is a sport where you can just cancel a game and let it affect the standings as it did in the North Division where Hagerstown beat Delmarva by half a game. The Fireflies finished with a losing record at home but a winning record at home. So if there is a bright spot to playing two more games on the road than at home in the First Half race it's that it helped our team who can't seem to do well in Spirit Communications Park on a regular basis. Rome however was even weirder in that regard though, finishing a game above .500 on the road but playing extremely poorly in NW Georgia going 10-26 at home. The Fireflies' comeback win in Asheville allowed the Fireflies to finish right in the middle of the standings at 36-34 for whatever it's worth. Now here's a look at the attendance:


TeamAverageRankCapacityPercent CapacityRank
Greensboro Grasshoppers5,03717,49967.17%3
Lakewood BlueClaws4,93728,00061.71%4
Greenville Drive4,81735,70084.51%1
Charleston RiverDogs4,36246,00072.70%2
Columbia Fireflies3,74757,50149.95%11
Lexington Legends3,72166,99453.20%8
Delmarva Shorebirds3,15775,20060.71%6
Augusta GreenJackets2,72784,82256.55%7
Rome Braves2,60795,10551.07%9
Asheville Tourists2,462104,00061.55%5
West Virginia Power2,249114,50049.98%10
Hickory Crawdads2,230125,06244.05%12
Kannapolis Intimidators1,544134,70032.85%13
Hagerstown Suns1,094144,60023.78%14



Those attendance numbers still aren't great. Considering the cost of going to a game is much cheaper than Charleston (or USC games for that matter), the Fireflies need to be averaging somewhere between 500 and 1,000 better for their first season. The team was hoping to do even better in averaging over 5,000, which was probably an unrealistic goal. I think the marketing goal of relying on group outings may not be the best, as a lot of those fans in groups may not be interested in coming back. The Fireflies sold out opening night, now they need to cultivate repeat customers. The Fireflies however are still crushing the old Bombers in attendance as well as the recent Sand Gnat teams in Savannah, which meets the minimum expectations. That said the current team in Savannah, the Bananas of the CPL, are also crushing the old Sand Gnats in attendance. But Savannah also has a smaller stadium and the CPL has fewer games. Based on percentage of capacity filled which I included in this chart, the Fireflies are doing fairly poorly at 49.95%, 4th worst in the SAL (though just 0.03% behind West Virginia). That said the reason you build bigger stadiums is to get better attendance, which gives the Fireflies an edge over teams like Asheville. And I also like having space as a fan. To be honest Firefly games would be less pleasant to go to if we had 4,000 season ticket holders and averaged over 6,000 fans per game. My biggest problem with going to USC games across town is that they more often than not sellout the regular chair seats with only bleachers and berm left over in the outfield. The fact that you can get an affordable infield seat on a nightly basis makes the Fireflies more enjoyable. So if the ownership group is happy, then I'm happy. The only thing that remains to be seen is if Hardball Capital is happy with the numbers so far.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Mid-Season Firefly Rankings

The South Atlantic League All-Star Game was last night in Lexington after the Fireflies got a home run from Ivan Wilson in the 9th inning to beat Asheville to finish above .500 for the first half at 36-34 and 4th in the South. That's an okay start, but going to need a big second half to keep Spirit Communications Park going after Labor Day (besides as a city park). Using the point system I have been using from conventional statistics, it's time to take a look at where our Firefly players stand now.

1. P.J. Conlon, 1,041
Conlon hasn't been as dominant his last few starts, and had his first legitimately bad start last Thursday in Asheville. But at 8-1 with a 1.84 ERA he is still arguably the best pitcher in the SAL and started in the All-Star Game last night, where he gave up a run and got the loss after only one inning to keep him fresh for the weekend.

2. Alex Palsha, 699
Right now a huge gap between Conlon and everybody else, but a couple months ago never thought Palsha would rank this high. He is still a bit nerve-wracking with his consistency, but has filled the closer's role nicely in saving about 30 percent of all Firefly wins.

3. Kevin Canelon, 683
The one regular rotation guy I still haven't seen pitch, and really need to get out and see him sometime. After a rough start, Canelon has gotten his ERA down to 3.09 with a decent WHIP and strikeout ratio as well.

4. David Thompson, 675
This I believe is the lowest he has been in the rankings this year, and he's back on the DL which could hurt him getting into a rhythm. Last year he also started out as a RBI machine with Miami before cooling off after signing with the Mets and playing for Brooklyn. Sometimes college prospects breakdown after going hard for so long. Hope that's not the case with DT.

5. Vinny Siena, 645
Siena's batting average has dipped to .291 after batting well over .300 most of the season, but his OBP is still a very good .435. His strikeout ratio is still pretty high for a contact hitter though, and he needs to either become a terrific fielder or develop power to show value at the next level.

6. Joe Shaw, 528
Shaw has become a solid yet not domiannt starter. He seems similar to Canelon, but doesn't throw as hard as I've heard Canelon does and his stats are taking a slightly negative trajectory lately.

7. J.C. Rodriguez, 491
Rodriguez is getting better and better, which he should as an older foreign prospect. He's been pretty similar to Siena, with J.C. having the edge in power and Siena a better contact hitter. Still needs to lock down a regular position in the field, though he can play most of it as a utility guy.

8. Tyler Badamo, 468
Badamo is my favorite kind of pitcher. He can't win you games, but he doesn't usually lose them for you either. That's probably why he has 5 no-decisions in 12 starts. His control allows him to go deep into games, and he doesn't wear out like the other starters do in late innings. His pitches though don't have great movement and he gets hit a lot. While I like his style, I doubt most scouts would. Rooting for him to succeed, but he probably has a low ceiling.

9. Chase Ingram, 465
Ingram looked like he would be a solid top starter early in the season but it has not panned out that way. His ERA is up to 4.21 and his strikeout to walk ratio is 2.36 which is not very good. Like many young pitchers he can over-pitch at times. But he still shows promise other times as well. If he can develop consistency he should be back towards the top soon.

10. Tyler Bashlor, 456
I don't think anybody saw Bashlor this high after being injured for two years. Among current Fireflies, his 1.74 ERA is the best and he gets a lot of K's. He also walks a lot. but as long as it's not excessive he does his job not letting opponents get home. Hasn't been used much as a closer, but he seems to have the tools to be one.

11. Kevin Kaczmarski, 449
Kaczmarski led Division I with an incredible .465 batting average for Evansville, so he was sure to come along at some point. After being on and off the DL early, his average is now .259 and is probably the best defensive outfielder on the team as well. He's a bit old for Class A but is doing what he needs to in order to keep going in professional baseball.

12. Seth Davis. 397
Davis is not very big, but he gets the job done most of the time. He's a middle reliever right now, could see him continue to go as far as a former D3 guy can go as a left-handed specialist.

13. Dash Winningham, 355
His contact numbers are a bit down, but he's now starting to get doubles more consistently. What he really needs with his size though is home runs, of which he only has 2 so far after hitting a dozen to lead the Appalachian League last year. .239 is a good enough average for now, but gotta have those home runs.

14. Craig Missigman, 351
He seems to have finally gotten over the control problems he had early in the season. Still not a go-to guy out of the bullpen, but he fills in well when needed.

15. Jeff Diehl, 339
The best pure power hitter on the team, leading the Fireflies with 7 home runs. Diehl however still whiffs too much and unlike Kaczmarski does not have a good glove in the outfield.

16. Christian Montgomery, 320
Staying afloat after a rough start to the season. Might have the best fastball on the team, but still needs better control to get more consistent with it.

17. Johnny Magliozzi, 289
He's brought his ERA down to 4.18, and 2-2 with 3 saves is not too bad. He's a bit fortunate that his conventional stats are just okay though, though his 1.9 walks per 9 innings pitched is pretty good. Ultimately as a 24-year old reliever in Class A he needs to be more consistent in being less hittable.

18. Ivan Wilson, 285
I ranked him as the best Firefly in the preseason, and while I don't think that is the case anymore I think he is better than 18th. His OPS of .657 is a bit subpar, as is his .206 batting average, but he has shown potential and has delivered some big hits as he did on Sunday. He has to start showing signs of improvement, but there is still time for him to do so.

19. Milton Ramos, 243
Like Wilson, Ramos is a third round pick out of high school struggling at the plate. Ramos has a much better average than Wilson (.242 to .206). but Wilson has 6 home runs to none for Ramos. Ramos has a good glove, but needs to make better throws as errors have his fielding percentage at .953. Ramos is only 20 so he is in no danger of being released, but I could see him doing a second round in Class A like Rodriguez is doing.

20. Andrew Church, 240
For more than a month, the Mets decided that this second round pick was not good enough to be a Firefly. After two starts, the Mets decided he was too good to be a Firefly and promoted him to High A St. Lucie. Church was the first Firefly ever to get promoted. Good chance he will become the first Firefly to make the majors, which feels kind of bad that it will be a guy that made only one home appearance that most fans (including myself) did not see.

21. Joe Tuschak, 226
Tuschak looked like he was going to have a great year early on, but has slumped to a .213 average and is regularly out of the lineup. It's too bad, since as he is a 23-year old former prospect out of high school he needed a good year to keep going.

22. Luis Ortega, 196
Ortega came up the first time Thompson got hurt and has remained a Firefly since. So far he has a solid OPS of .753 and plays third base pretty well. At the very least, he has earned an extended stay in full-season ball.

23. Tyler Moore, 162
A lot of pressure on the older catcher here to do well, and Moore has gotten better batting .231. But with Mazeika now playing and Natanael Ramos finally off the DL again, it's going to be hard for him to get enough looks at catcher to move on up.

24. Patrick Mazeika, 139
The new challenger at catcher has cooled off quite a bit, batting only .244 with an OPS of .635. That's still better than Moore and Jose Garcia, while behind Natanael Ramos who has played little this year. He has looked good at times and will get more opportunities to show that he is capable of being a solid professional catcher.

25. Tucker Tharp, 110
A bad break for Tharp in taking a ball to the face may have in the end helped Tharp, as he is set to get off the DL in High A for St. Lucie. Getting promoted after an injury is likely because of his good play when healthy earlier this season, and as a 24-year old he needs to show he can play at a level higher than the SAL.

26. Thomas McIlraith, 86
McIlraith got a good start, but something was clearly wrong with him as the season progressed which is why he is now on the DL. Hopefully he will have recovered by the end of the season.

27. Gaby Almonte, 53
Almonte is tied in points with Vicente Lupo but Lupo has had more opprtunities so I will break the tie in favor of Almonte. After  McIlraith went on the DL, Church was given his rotation spot and now Almonte has it with Church's promotion. Almonte is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA, an okay start to the season. While he just started in Class A the pressure is on him to succeed here as a 23-year old who has been a pro for five years (though two of those were in the DSL which is more of a base camp for Latin (primarily Dominican) players.

28. Vicente Lupo, 53
Lupo had a very poor .181 average with a .562 OPS before getting sent down to Brooklyn. Perhaps most concerning about Lupo is that he struck out in 41.7 percent of plate appearances.With Tharp's promotion to St. Lucie, Lupo will be back on the Fireflies to start the second half. This might be his last chance to prove himself.

29. Emmanuel Zabala, 38
Had a solid four games as a Firefly but only played due to a shortage of outfielders and is back on Brooklyn. I suspect he will return here soon.

30. Natanael Ramos, 29
The other Ramos on the team has played sparingly due to injuries and a surplus of catchers. He got a somewhat lucky triple Sunday to get the Fireflies back in it with Asheville and it would be nice to see him get more opportunities.

31. Jose Garcia, 10
His .511 OPS is the worst on the team right now, and like Ramos he has struggled with injuries. He's younger than the other catchers, so he might get a chance to stick around as he probably manages the pitchers best of any of the catchers.

32. Witt Haggard, -7
After a rough start, Haggard went on the DL and now has come back with a few okay relief appearances. His point score is almost positive now! He's one of the oldest Fireflies so he needs to keep getting better and better.

33. Nicco Blank, -14
After doing okay in a few mop-up appearances Blank got in the same trouble as Haggard did early in the season: a couple bad games and then placed on the DL. Hopefully he'll get another chance like Haggard did.



Friday, June 10, 2016

South Atlantic League Rainout Watch

Finally I have gotten around to posting an update on the worst tradition of baseball, the rainout. In basketball and hockey, you know that roof above you will protect you. In football and soccer, you know they will play through it (at least once the lightning clears). In baseball, you might not get what you came to see. That is why we have the rain check, getting free admission to another game that hopefully will be played. But until we have full cost of attendance rain checks that cover the cost of traveling to a canceled or postponed game, rainouts will always be bad and a plague upon this sport. A Minor League Baseball team has 70 home games a year. If you have more than 7 rainouts a year, that's too many. If you have 15 or more rainouts, you have some serious issues, either with the protection of the field or the climate itself. If that is the case, maybe you need to build the first dome for MiLB.

So it's time to take a look at the number of rainouts in the SAL so far with a week and a half left in the first half. When I have time I will try to look at other leagues for a comparison as well.

A summary of the rules for a rainout: less than five official innings have to be played for a rainout. If your power goes out and costs Tyler Badamo of an official win, that counts too (looking at you, Greenville). If a game is suspended, it counts as a rainout (Charleston's lone rainout comes this way). The exception is if 5+ innings were played before the game was called and resumed, as was the case for an Asheville game against Hagerstown in April.

1. Lexington               5
T2. West Virginia       4
T2. Delmarva             4
T4. Greensboro          3
T4. Hagerstown          3
T6. Greenville            2
T6. Augusta               2
T6. Rome                    2
T6. Lakewood            2
T10. Charleston          1
T10. Kannapolis         1
T10. Asheville            1
T13. Columbia           0
T13. Hickory               0

The Fireflies have no home rainouts! Given Columbia's climate, this will change by the end of the season barring a huge miracle. It would be a minor miracle if we finish with no rainouts in the first half which could happen if the weather holds up for the conclusion of the series against Rome. But now that I say that,  we probably will get unlucky now.

Actually the whole league has in general been pretty lucky. So far it has been mostly the northern teams in the league in hilly or coastal areas that have had an issue with spring rain. Southern inland swamps like Columbia are just now hitting their rainiest part of the year. Hopefully the rain will stay away, or at least problems can be kept to a minimum as we hit the worst of summer.

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Previewing the West Virginia Power

No real players of interest here on the Power. There best player is probably the fantastically named Tito Polo, and their best prospect is probably Ke'Bryan Hayes, who the Pirates drafted out of high school last year. I'll put all players into one table this time, even though the stats fit kind of weird into it.


NumberPlayerPositionAB/IPOPS/WAVG/LHR/SRBI/ERARound PickedAgeCollegeHome State/Country
3Ryan NagleOF1850.6580.2541242721IllinoisIllinois
5Mitchell Tolman2B1730.720.266317722OregonCalifornia
6Logan RatledgeSS580.5510.224021323N.C. StateNorth Carolina
10Cesilio PimentalP150114.2IFA23 Dominican Republic
12John BormannC600.7670.3042423UT San AntonioTexas
13Alfredo ReyesSS1440.5610.201214IFA22 Dominican Republic
14Tyler FillibenSS790.5970.2031101223SamfordFlorida
15Logan HillOF1210.5130.1653132523TroyFlorida
16Tanner AndersonP372102.192023HarvardFlorida
18Tito PoloRF1950.9340.3081031IFA21 Colombia
22Ke'Bryan HayesIF1820.7680.286630119 Texas
23Daniel Arribas3B1720.8350.273619IFA23 Netherlands
24Jess AmedeeP8.670207.272722UT ArlingtonColorado
26Gage HinszP500001120 Montana
27Christian KelleyC1330.590.2180181122Cal Poly PomonaCalifornia
28Logan SendelbachP644103.661022TiffinOhio
30Seth McGarryP270124822Florida AtlanticFlorida
31Julio VivasP130004.85IFA22 Venezuela
32Julio EusebioP23.330041.16NDFA24Odessa JCNew York
34Carlos Munoz1B1900.6880.253333IFA21 Mexico
35Bret HeltonP52.672503.93922UtahColorado
37Sean KeselicaP11.331010.793322Virginia TechNew Jersey
38Daniel ZamoraP28.333102.544023Stony BrookCalifornia
44Dario AgrazalP543404IFA21 Panama
47Billy RothP172307.411621 California

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

SAL League Standings and Attendance through June 7

With the Fireflies' facing a rubber match in Augusta today before returning home, here's another look at the updated league standings and attendance report.



TeamAffiliateWLPCT
North Division
HagerstownNationals37210.638
HickoryRangers33240.579
DelmarvaOrioles32240.571
GreensboroMarlins30280.517
West VirginiaPirates29280.509
LakewoodPhillies23350.397
KannapolisWhite Sox22360.379
South Division
CharlestonYankees34220.607
GreenvilleRed Sox30270.526
AshevilleRockies29280.509
AugustaGiants29280.509
ColumbiaMets29290.500
RomeBraves22350.386
LexingtonRoyals22360.379

Attendance:

1. Greensboro             5,021
2. Greenville               4,846
3. Lakewood               4,827
4. Charleston               4,382
5. Columbia                 3,796
6. Lexington                3,659
7. Delmarva                 3,083
8. Augusta                   2,809
9. Rome                       2,640
10. Asheville               2,312
11. Hickory                 2,129
12. West Virginia        2,128
13. Kannapolis            1,534
14. Hagerstown           1,013

The Fireflies have fallen a back a little in attendance, and in the standings too. Right now the Fireflies' postseason hopes depend on a good second half with the Mets needing to send more prospects after the draft here especially if guys like Conlon and Thompson get promoted. Attendance-wise, the heat and the Gamecocks getting another home weekend in the postseason are really going to drag down attendance until the 4th of July most likely. Really would like to see the Fireflies beat Lexington and challenge Charleston in attendance, but at least it looks like the Fireflies will finish in the top half easily enough. The more interesting number may be Kannapolis, which could finish with the worst attendance of a SAL team not seriously threatening to move in at least a decade.

Thursday, June 2, 2016

Hagerstown Series Preview

Probably won't see much of this series with the NCAA Regionals in town this weekend. So hope we can get a game in tonight, as the Hagerstown Suns may be one of the more interesting teams coming to Spirit Communications Park this year. Hagerstown is a very veteran squad that has a lot of SEC flavor. The most notable of the five SEC guys on Hagerstown to local fans is infielder Max Schrock, who played the last few years at Carolina Stadium for the Gamecocks.Cal Ripken's son Ryan who transferred due to lack of playing time at USC is also on Hagerstown, as is Mariano Rivera's son who leads the Suns' bullpen.

Hitters



NumberPlayerPositionABOPSAVGHRRBIRound PickedAgeCollegeHome State/Country
2Max SchrockSS1970.8080.313231321South CarolinaNorth Carolina
4Edwin LoraSS1390.6560.223216IFA20Dominican Republic
5Kelvin Gutierrez3B1970.7390.299128IFA21Dominican Republic
6Austin Davidson2B700.9280.33131323PepperdineCalifornia
8Rhett WisemanCF1700.7270.253430321VanderbiltMassachusetts
13Ian Sagdal2B1450.6690.2343201623Washinton StateWashington
16Victor RoblesOF1620.8860.315523IFA19Dominican Republic
21Jakson ReetzC910.750.22213320Nebraska
25Ryan Ripken1B1630.4510.2121211522Indian River StateMaryland
30Jorge TilleroC790.5340.24101IFA22Venezuela
32Matthew PageRF1440.8080.2852301024Oklahoma BaptistCalifornia
NACody Dent3B710.50.183052224FloridaFlorida

Pitchers


NumberPlayerIPWLSERARound PickedAgeCollegeHome State/Country
11Luis Torres222206.14IFA21 Venezuela
14Grant Borne47.671413.59722Nicholls StateLouisiana
15Pedro Avila35.673303.28IFA19 Venezuela
17Mariano Rivera26.333042.39422IonaNew York
19Joan Baez41.672404.32IFA21 Dominican Republic
20Taylor Guilbeau300015.41023AlabamaLouisiana
26Jefry Rodriguez50.335202.86IFA22 Dominican Republic
31Trey Lambert211002.57NDFA24LibertyVirginia
33Matthew DeRosier46.331205.242421SouthwesternCalifornia
35Jorge Pantoja24.336012.963022Alabama StateFlorida
36Mick VanVossen14.330142.512823Michigan StateMichigan
37Tommy Peterson23.673152.661222South FloridaFlorida
47Andrew Lee46.672203.661122TennesseeTennessee

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

League Standings And Attendance Report Through May

Here are the current Class A standings for both leagues, now valid through the end of May Not that there is a Class A World Series or championship so the Midwest League doesn't really matter except to see the full picture.



Midwest League
East Division
TeamAffiliateWLPCT
South BendCubs31200.608
West MichiganTigers29190.604
Lake CountyIndians30220.577
Fort WaynePadres28250.528
LansingBlue Jays26240.52
Bowling GreenRays26250.51
Great LakesDodgers22280.44
DaytonReds13390.25
West Division
TeamAffiliateWLPCT
Cedar RapidsTwins29220.569
PeoriaCardinals27240.529
ClintonMariners26240.52
BeloitAthletics25260.49
Kane CountyDiamondbacks25260.49
BurlingtonAngels24270.471
WisconsinBrewers24280.462
Quad CitiesAstros22280.44
South Atlantic League
North Division
TeamAffiliateWLPCT
HagerstownNationals32190.627
HickoryRangers29210.58
DelmarvaOrioles28210.571
West VirginiaPirates27240.529
GreensboroMarlins26260.5
KannapolisWhite Sox20310.392
LakewoodPhillies20320.385
South Division
TeamAffiliateWLPCT
CharlestonYankees30200.6
AshevilleRockies26240.529
ColumbiaMets27250.519
GreenvilleRed Sox26250.51
AugustaGiants25260.49
LexingtonRoyals21310.404
RomeBraves20320.385

Now here is a look at all 30 Class A teams by attendance, with a note on each:

1. Dayton             7,562
The Dragons have sold out every game since opening their stadium in 2000, a far longer streak than what the Fireflies did to start. It's actually kind of scary that there is a community that devoted to Minor League Baseball. It would be interesting to know if Dayton fans are better than MiLB fans generally, which wouldn't take much. That said, the Dragons aren't selling out the berm much this year (which they don't count as part of their sellout streak). That's probably partly because it's early, and also in part because the Dragons have been pretty terrible this year.

2. Fort Wayne      5,283
Fort Wayne is also owned by Hardball Capital, and Spirit Communications Park was modeled off Fort Wayne's stadium. This is what Columbia leaders had in mind for the Fireflies when devloping the team and stadium. But so far the Fireflies have lagged far below Fort Wayne in attendance. Not sure what the problem has been for the Fireflies as far as why Fort Wayne has been able to sell themselves better with the same owner.

3. Greenville          4,892
The Drive have done better in attendance than Mississippi, the AA team that took their team for Greenville forcing Greenville to steal a team from Columbia. The Class A team has done a lot better than the AA team in attendance, which is kind of weird. Is Fluor Field really that much better than Greenville Municipal?  I think it comes down to marketing, which the AA team was behind in while the Class A team has been more aggressive in its approach.

4. Greensboro       4,883
When I went to school at High Point I routinely attended Grasshopers games, who seem to exaggerate their crowds. But Greensboro is one of the biggest cities in Class A, so you would expect them high on this list. Supposedly Bank of the Week Park was built to be expandable to AAA standards, but trying to get an IL team would be a stretch. The AA Southern League would have been more realistic until they pulled out of the region and are almost exclusively a Gulf South league now.


5. Lakewood           4,752
The BlueClaws, at the northeastern edge of the SAL in New Jersey, are usually the attendance kings of the SAL. Lakewood isn't a big city, but the Jersey Shore is densely populated and not too close to New York for the MLB teams to get in the way. Their attendance woes are probably because northern teams tend to struggle in that regard until the summer solstice. They could very well still lead the SAL in attendance again by the end of the season. While they are very far away from here, it's somewhat too bad that the Fireflies and BlueClaws don't play at all this year given Lakewood's poor record.

6. Kane County          4,405
Kane County, in the suburbs of Chicago, started the awful trend in the 1990s of suburban counties feeling entitled to a second (or third) professional team in their market. And yet the Cougars are a Diamondbacks team! The Cubs never affiliate with them in order to grow their reach in other Midwest League cities, and the White Sox seem to like having a base of teams in North Carolina. Kane County always does well in attendance, just because there are enough fans priced out of making regular trips to the big city 30 miles to the east.

7. Charleston            4,366
Not the city in West Virginia, but our hated rivals to the south. Unlike most teams, Charleston's attendance at Joe Riley Park continues to slowly inch upward every year. Joe Riley Park is even outdated by MiLB standards, having a large amount of bleacher seating and a concourse that isn't very fan-friendly. Apparently sound effects every pitch, exorbitantly high ticket prices (about 50 percent higher than the Fireflies), and obnoxiously little detail to the game except Yankees Yankees Yankees has a lot of appeal fans, at least to the drunks who seem to fill the stadium nightly. It really stinks that these guys are on the verge of running away with the SAL South First Half title. The Yankees are going to have some players they will want to trade for older guys now.

8. South Bend           4,087
Now here is where the Cubs put their Class A team in order to take hold of the Indiana market. The marketing with the Cubs seems to work in South Bend, which has a relatively older stadium (built in 1988). South Bend is best known for being the home of Notre Dame, but the minor league team outdraws the Irish baseball team which has occasionally been successful in the past. But Notre Dame still provides year-round competition in the sports market so they can be seen as a model for college cities like Columbia.


9. Columbia                3,768
And here we are, 9th out of 30 in attendance! Now that's not so bad is it? But we should be high less than two months into opening the stadium. The attendance goals of the team translated into about 5300 per game, which no SAL team is currently on pace for right now and only two Midwest League teams are (with one only barely so). As I've said before, I hope Hardball Capital doesn't take out their own problems on Columbia like they did with Savannah. In the end, I think the Fireflies may end up like Bowling Green (another newly built stadium in a college town) or Augusta. Lexington may be a best case scenario unfortunately. But as long as the stadium is popular and gets good use, all should be well as least for the remainder of the 2010s.

10. Lexington              3,657
Now here is Lexington, a successful Class A team that has been around 15 years now which like Columbia has a SEC team in town. UK isn't one of the more successful SEC programs historically, but they are still in the SEC and Lexington supports all of its teams very well just like Columbia does with USC. This should be the Fireflies' model of success.

11. West Michigan         3,643
West Michigan is in the suburbs of Grand Rapids, one of the largest metro areas in Class A and one that is often forgotten outside the Midwest. The Whitecaps get good community support from throughout the area and market their Tigers affiliation well. It is also a very large stadium for Class A, seating over 10K which makes it comparable to a AAA stadium. This helps maximize crowds on nights with good attendance.

12. Lansing                     3,600
Lansing has a major college team in its suburbs in Michigan State, though the Big Ten generally lags behind the rest of the P5 in baseball. Overall the Lugnuts do very well as the chief baseball team in Central Michigan, which typically waits for warm weather before they come out.

13. Delmarva                       3,107
The Shorebirds when they debuted in the mid-1990s were one of Class A's biggest draws. Eastern Maryland is a bit isolated from the inland parts of the Mid-Atlantic, so having a baseball team that feeds into the Orioles is a really big deal. Over the past 20 years the Shorebirds have faded somewhat in popularity, but are still doing as well as realistically possible in one of the SAL's smallest markets.

14. Quad Cities                     3,007
There are many teams in the Midwest League in eastern Iowa and Quad Cities is by far the most successful, in part because having four cities as their name suggests produces a better attendance base than their rivals do. The stadium is on the Mississippi River, which helps out for scenery (and marketing) but also leaves the River Bandits prone to flooding.

15. Peoria                            2,875
Now we're reaching the classic minor league baseball markets, which we could see Columbia slide into after the novelty of Spirit Communications Park wears off. Peoria has some competition from mid-major sports in Bradley with Illinois State not too far away either but the Chiefs are chief in baseball for this part of Illinois. The Cubs and Cardinals have both over the years affiliated with Peoria as this is a market those two have to fight for.

16. Wisconsin                       2,778
Wisconsin is located in suburban Appleton, and takes hold of the northeastern Wisconsin market including a NFL city in Green Bay (though GB itself has a college summer league team). Without much college baseball in the region, the Timber Rattlers have to do.

17. Augusta                           2,772
The Fireflies' closest rival even though they are out of state. They soon may be in this state however as they are pushing for a new stadium in North Augusta. These actions are what turn fans off to pro sports, as the GreenJackets have a perfectly nice 22-year old stadium with respectable attendance numbers.

18. Rome                               2,741
The Braves have a tendency to move their affiliates around for their own marketing of the MLB team, and the R-Braves are no exception having moved from Rome to Macon a little under 15 years ago. Even my own town of Sumter once had this franchise! Rome is a bit small for a new MiLB market but the Braves serve it well, though their location away from I-75 prevents people from the NW Atlanta suburbs from possible checking them out.

19. Bowling Green                2,718
Another potential model for the Fireflies, as Bowling Green is a college town (though WKU's baseball popularity isn't exactly USC's) and the Hot Rods are being used as part of urban revitalization as Columbia is hoping the Fireflies will bring. But Bowling Green is a much smaller town which is why their attendance numbers haven't knocked it out of the park since opening about 8 years ago now. BG is basically the low bar for the Fireflies to try to reach.

20. Lake County                   2,273
A classic suburban team whose bubble has burst, similar to Gwinnett in AAA. The Captains were successful upon opening about a dozen years ago in the NE suburbs of Cleveland. But trying to be a cheaper version of the Indians isn't going to cut it in the long term, especially when trying to appeal to the rich people Cleveland lacks is futile. Perhaps the Captains should be a warning to owners looking to seek suburban markets, but greed will always prevail.

21. Asheville                       2,221
Asheville has a simple, yet nice ballpark and a mid-sized market. And they perfectly happy with that, and don't clamor for a modern ballpark to boost their consistently below average attendance numbers. And you know what? That's great. We need more Minor League Baseball teams to behave like the Tourists do.

22. Hickory                          2,201
Like Delmarva, Hickory was a small market success story in the mid-1990s. Lately they have been trying to scrape by avoiding the bottom tier of the SAL in attendance. The Crawdads are still a valuable part of the Western NC Piedmont community, yet seem to be now more of a small-town team. But that is also perfectly fine, as while the stadium is only 23 years old it fits in with the roots of Minor League Baseball.

23. West Virginia                 2,105
West Virginia got a boost when they built a new stadium 11 years ago, but their attendance has slipped back to that of the old Charleston Alley Cats. It's why building a new stadium isn't a long-term solution to attendance problems. That may be an issue affecting the Fireflies in comparing them to the Capital City Bombers, but once again it comes down to marketing which separates teams like Greenville from teams like West Virginia (which is also a fairly small market for being located in the state's biggest city).

24. Great Lakes                      1,904
Not good attendance numbers, but they are one of the northern most Class A teams so can't count them out yet as the weather will get better there (and worse here of course). They are not too far from Midland Berryhill, one of the most successful programs in American Legion Baseball. Not sure if they have the power to draw away from the Loons or not.

25. Cedar Rapids                   1,842
Cedar Rapids is a mid-sized city in Iowa with a decent stadium. Again like Great Lakes, I expect their attendance to rise faster than the SAL parks come summer. But Cedar Rapids is sort of like Hickory in the SAL, decent tradition and support from the region but a bit small to be a giant in attendance stats.

26. Clinton                            1,555
That number looks terrible but again it's early and actually respectable considering Clinton is one of the smallest markets in Minor League Baseball above Rookie League. It's a small town team, so if they are content being one then these numbers work.

27. Kannapolis                     1,543
They always have struggled somewhat in attendance, even when they debuted as the Piedmont Boll Weevils in the mid-1990s. I was skeptical of their ability to stay afloat when the AAA Knights moved from Fort Mill to downtown Charlotte located only about 25 miles SW of Kannapolis. And that might have taken a toll as they struggle to carve out a niche as the team of Charlotte's NE suburbs. They are trying to get a new stadium, which if successful could give them a boost at least on a temporary basis. If that falls through, they could become the next SAL team to relocate.

28. Hagerstown                    1,013
That's actually not down from recent years particularly, the Suns have just drawn that bad. It really hurts when you state your intent to move to Fredericksburg, Virginia, only for that new stadium's plans to fall through. It's why Hardball Capital always acted like Savannah could salvage its team when Spirit Communications Park was being built to lure them away. Savannah's final attendance numbers didn't plummet as bad as Hagerstown's has. Hopefully something will work out for somebody, either for Hagerstown or Fredericksburg.

29. Burlington                      746
The Bees might draw less than Burlington in North Carolina which is in the Appalachian League. Like Clinton, Burlington is in a very small town but has an even more outdated stadium which my dad 60 years ago as a batboy for a traveling Colt League all-star team went to. It's impressive that they still have Minor League Baseball.

30. Beloit                               590
Really? Less than 600 fans per game? Even in a small town in southern Wisconsin that sounds absurdly low for Minor League Baseball. The Snappers have been trying to improve their stadium situation, and if those numbers stay where they are I don't see them staying. That would be a pretty bad attendance number for a college summer league team, much less Class A professional baseball.