Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Mid-Season Firefly Rankings

The South Atlantic League All-Star Game was last night in Lexington after the Fireflies got a home run from Ivan Wilson in the 9th inning to beat Asheville to finish above .500 for the first half at 36-34 and 4th in the South. That's an okay start, but going to need a big second half to keep Spirit Communications Park going after Labor Day (besides as a city park). Using the point system I have been using from conventional statistics, it's time to take a look at where our Firefly players stand now.

1. P.J. Conlon, 1,041
Conlon hasn't been as dominant his last few starts, and had his first legitimately bad start last Thursday in Asheville. But at 8-1 with a 1.84 ERA he is still arguably the best pitcher in the SAL and started in the All-Star Game last night, where he gave up a run and got the loss after only one inning to keep him fresh for the weekend.

2. Alex Palsha, 699
Right now a huge gap between Conlon and everybody else, but a couple months ago never thought Palsha would rank this high. He is still a bit nerve-wracking with his consistency, but has filled the closer's role nicely in saving about 30 percent of all Firefly wins.

3. Kevin Canelon, 683
The one regular rotation guy I still haven't seen pitch, and really need to get out and see him sometime. After a rough start, Canelon has gotten his ERA down to 3.09 with a decent WHIP and strikeout ratio as well.

4. David Thompson, 675
This I believe is the lowest he has been in the rankings this year, and he's back on the DL which could hurt him getting into a rhythm. Last year he also started out as a RBI machine with Miami before cooling off after signing with the Mets and playing for Brooklyn. Sometimes college prospects breakdown after going hard for so long. Hope that's not the case with DT.

5. Vinny Siena, 645
Siena's batting average has dipped to .291 after batting well over .300 most of the season, but his OBP is still a very good .435. His strikeout ratio is still pretty high for a contact hitter though, and he needs to either become a terrific fielder or develop power to show value at the next level.

6. Joe Shaw, 528
Shaw has become a solid yet not domiannt starter. He seems similar to Canelon, but doesn't throw as hard as I've heard Canelon does and his stats are taking a slightly negative trajectory lately.

7. J.C. Rodriguez, 491
Rodriguez is getting better and better, which he should as an older foreign prospect. He's been pretty similar to Siena, with J.C. having the edge in power and Siena a better contact hitter. Still needs to lock down a regular position in the field, though he can play most of it as a utility guy.

8. Tyler Badamo, 468
Badamo is my favorite kind of pitcher. He can't win you games, but he doesn't usually lose them for you either. That's probably why he has 5 no-decisions in 12 starts. His control allows him to go deep into games, and he doesn't wear out like the other starters do in late innings. His pitches though don't have great movement and he gets hit a lot. While I like his style, I doubt most scouts would. Rooting for him to succeed, but he probably has a low ceiling.

9. Chase Ingram, 465
Ingram looked like he would be a solid top starter early in the season but it has not panned out that way. His ERA is up to 4.21 and his strikeout to walk ratio is 2.36 which is not very good. Like many young pitchers he can over-pitch at times. But he still shows promise other times as well. If he can develop consistency he should be back towards the top soon.

10. Tyler Bashlor, 456
I don't think anybody saw Bashlor this high after being injured for two years. Among current Fireflies, his 1.74 ERA is the best and he gets a lot of K's. He also walks a lot. but as long as it's not excessive he does his job not letting opponents get home. Hasn't been used much as a closer, but he seems to have the tools to be one.

11. Kevin Kaczmarski, 449
Kaczmarski led Division I with an incredible .465 batting average for Evansville, so he was sure to come along at some point. After being on and off the DL early, his average is now .259 and is probably the best defensive outfielder on the team as well. He's a bit old for Class A but is doing what he needs to in order to keep going in professional baseball.

12. Seth Davis. 397
Davis is not very big, but he gets the job done most of the time. He's a middle reliever right now, could see him continue to go as far as a former D3 guy can go as a left-handed specialist.

13. Dash Winningham, 355
His contact numbers are a bit down, but he's now starting to get doubles more consistently. What he really needs with his size though is home runs, of which he only has 2 so far after hitting a dozen to lead the Appalachian League last year. .239 is a good enough average for now, but gotta have those home runs.

14. Craig Missigman, 351
He seems to have finally gotten over the control problems he had early in the season. Still not a go-to guy out of the bullpen, but he fills in well when needed.

15. Jeff Diehl, 339
The best pure power hitter on the team, leading the Fireflies with 7 home runs. Diehl however still whiffs too much and unlike Kaczmarski does not have a good glove in the outfield.

16. Christian Montgomery, 320
Staying afloat after a rough start to the season. Might have the best fastball on the team, but still needs better control to get more consistent with it.

17. Johnny Magliozzi, 289
He's brought his ERA down to 4.18, and 2-2 with 3 saves is not too bad. He's a bit fortunate that his conventional stats are just okay though, though his 1.9 walks per 9 innings pitched is pretty good. Ultimately as a 24-year old reliever in Class A he needs to be more consistent in being less hittable.

18. Ivan Wilson, 285
I ranked him as the best Firefly in the preseason, and while I don't think that is the case anymore I think he is better than 18th. His OPS of .657 is a bit subpar, as is his .206 batting average, but he has shown potential and has delivered some big hits as he did on Sunday. He has to start showing signs of improvement, but there is still time for him to do so.

19. Milton Ramos, 243
Like Wilson, Ramos is a third round pick out of high school struggling at the plate. Ramos has a much better average than Wilson (.242 to .206). but Wilson has 6 home runs to none for Ramos. Ramos has a good glove, but needs to make better throws as errors have his fielding percentage at .953. Ramos is only 20 so he is in no danger of being released, but I could see him doing a second round in Class A like Rodriguez is doing.

20. Andrew Church, 240
For more than a month, the Mets decided that this second round pick was not good enough to be a Firefly. After two starts, the Mets decided he was too good to be a Firefly and promoted him to High A St. Lucie. Church was the first Firefly ever to get promoted. Good chance he will become the first Firefly to make the majors, which feels kind of bad that it will be a guy that made only one home appearance that most fans (including myself) did not see.

21. Joe Tuschak, 226
Tuschak looked like he was going to have a great year early on, but has slumped to a .213 average and is regularly out of the lineup. It's too bad, since as he is a 23-year old former prospect out of high school he needed a good year to keep going.

22. Luis Ortega, 196
Ortega came up the first time Thompson got hurt and has remained a Firefly since. So far he has a solid OPS of .753 and plays third base pretty well. At the very least, he has earned an extended stay in full-season ball.

23. Tyler Moore, 162
A lot of pressure on the older catcher here to do well, and Moore has gotten better batting .231. But with Mazeika now playing and Natanael Ramos finally off the DL again, it's going to be hard for him to get enough looks at catcher to move on up.

24. Patrick Mazeika, 139
The new challenger at catcher has cooled off quite a bit, batting only .244 with an OPS of .635. That's still better than Moore and Jose Garcia, while behind Natanael Ramos who has played little this year. He has looked good at times and will get more opportunities to show that he is capable of being a solid professional catcher.

25. Tucker Tharp, 110
A bad break for Tharp in taking a ball to the face may have in the end helped Tharp, as he is set to get off the DL in High A for St. Lucie. Getting promoted after an injury is likely because of his good play when healthy earlier this season, and as a 24-year old he needs to show he can play at a level higher than the SAL.

26. Thomas McIlraith, 86
McIlraith got a good start, but something was clearly wrong with him as the season progressed which is why he is now on the DL. Hopefully he will have recovered by the end of the season.

27. Gaby Almonte, 53
Almonte is tied in points with Vicente Lupo but Lupo has had more opprtunities so I will break the tie in favor of Almonte. After  McIlraith went on the DL, Church was given his rotation spot and now Almonte has it with Church's promotion. Almonte is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA, an okay start to the season. While he just started in Class A the pressure is on him to succeed here as a 23-year old who has been a pro for five years (though two of those were in the DSL which is more of a base camp for Latin (primarily Dominican) players.

28. Vicente Lupo, 53
Lupo had a very poor .181 average with a .562 OPS before getting sent down to Brooklyn. Perhaps most concerning about Lupo is that he struck out in 41.7 percent of plate appearances.With Tharp's promotion to St. Lucie, Lupo will be back on the Fireflies to start the second half. This might be his last chance to prove himself.

29. Emmanuel Zabala, 38
Had a solid four games as a Firefly but only played due to a shortage of outfielders and is back on Brooklyn. I suspect he will return here soon.

30. Natanael Ramos, 29
The other Ramos on the team has played sparingly due to injuries and a surplus of catchers. He got a somewhat lucky triple Sunday to get the Fireflies back in it with Asheville and it would be nice to see him get more opportunities.

31. Jose Garcia, 10
His .511 OPS is the worst on the team right now, and like Ramos he has struggled with injuries. He's younger than the other catchers, so he might get a chance to stick around as he probably manages the pitchers best of any of the catchers.

32. Witt Haggard, -7
After a rough start, Haggard went on the DL and now has come back with a few okay relief appearances. His point score is almost positive now! He's one of the oldest Fireflies so he needs to keep getting better and better.

33. Nicco Blank, -14
After doing okay in a few mop-up appearances Blank got in the same trouble as Haggard did early in the season: a couple bad games and then placed on the DL. Hopefully he'll get another chance like Haggard did.



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