DICE Batter Rankings

After evaluating pitchers based on DICE, now it's time to do the same with batters. But wait, how can that be measured? Well, batters have walks, get hit by pitches, strikeout, and hit home runs. The only question is what constitutes an inning pitched for a batter? One method that you could use is multiplying at-bats by 2.6 or plate appearances by 3.1 as that is the comparison of the minimum for the batting average title with the number of innings a pitcher needs for an ERA title. But when I tried that all the hitters were too close together. So I decided to count an inning as 3 0 for 1 at-bats, since that creates an inning. Obviously there will be some fielding component then in that batters who ground out and fly out more will have more innings credited to them, but it can also work the same with pitchers too. So here are the 17 Fireflies ranked through the July 4th game by their calculated DICE, with their OPS ranks noted as well.

1. Patrick Mazeika (4.71 DICE, ranked 6th in OPS)
Mazeika is the best Firefly hitter based on DICE, as opposing pitchers would be projected to have an average ERA of 4.71 if they only faced him. This is because Mazeika has two home runs (decent for being injured the first several weeks of the season) and has an excellent walk to strikeout ratio of 17 to 20. Including getting hit by pitches, Mazeika has earned a "free" pass more than he has given opposing fielders a free pass. If he can develop into a defensive catcher, his hitting is where it needs to be.

2. Jeff Diehl (3.90 DICE, ranked 4th in OPS)
Both DICE and OPS think highly of Diehl largely because of him leading the team in home runs. Diehl has a high strikeout rate, though his walk rate is also pretty solid. In my Firefly Player Standings Diehl generally doesn't fair as well since he doesn't do well in running the bases, and he also probably needs to get better defensively to add value and receive a promotion.

3. Vinny Siena (3.85 DICE, ranked 1st in OPS)
Siena had the best OPS due to a high walk rate, which also is rewarded by DICE and the Mets see value in that too in giving him a promotion. He's behind Diehl due to not being able to hit home runs and behind Mazeika due to a relatively high strikeout rate. But he still was one of the best three Firefly hitters by most advanced statistic measures, and the offense is still trying to find a good replacement.

4. Luis Ortega (3.78 DICE, ranked 12th in OPS)
Ortega has a very low walk rate which places him in the bottom half of the team in OPS. But Ortega has homered once every 29 at-bats, the second highest rate on the team with Diehl the highest. If he could be more patient at the plate and worked pitchers better he has the potential to be a dangerous hitter with his strength.

5. David Thompson (3.56 DICE, ranked 2nd in OPS)
Thompson is the best hitter on the team using conventional statistics, and probably is on the active roster with Siena promoted. It does seem surprising that he has been able to accumulate 58 RBIs on just 5 home runs. It does seem weird for his DICE to be so low, but for being such a good hitter he has a very low walk rate. It's a bit hard for advanced statistics to measure a player being able to put the ball in play when needed.

6. J.C. Rodriguez (3.51 DICE, ranked 11th in OPS)
Rodriguez is ranked third typically in my All-Time Firefly Standings among hitters for two reasons: he plays nearly every day to get enough points, and his primary value may be being the best baserunner on the team. Hitting wise he has only been so-so far in terms of his rates.

7. Joe Tuschak (3.42 DICE, ranked 15th in OPS)
Tuschak is hated in OPS but not so much in DICE as his home run rate is 1 for 50 at-bats which is not too bad for Class A. His strikeout rate is  just over 1 per 5 plate appearances which isn't great but indicates his batting average of .211 is lower than it ought to be.

8. Dash Winningham (3.29 DICE, ranked 9th in OPS)
He had a very low strikeout rate early which is now a little over 1 per 6 plate appearances which is still pretty solid. Still would like to see him build up his home run rate which is 1 per 65 at-bats which probably needs to be higher for a player of his size and skill set.

9. Kevin Kaczmarski (3.15 DICE, ranked 5th in OPS)
Most advanced statistics underrate contact hitters, and that's one particular flaw of using DICE for batters. For him to move up I think he needs to build up his walk rate like Siena did.

10. Tyler Moore (2.78 DICE, ranked 13th in OPS)
He's still on the team though buried deep on the depth chart now. All of his rates are acceptable but not as good as you want from one of the oldest players on the team.

11. Ivan Wilson (2.77 DICE, ranked 14th in OPS)
His reaction to dropping below the Mendoza line was to quit professional baseball which is a bit sad. Wilson did have 1 home run per 35.5 at-bats which is pretty solid for a player who also runs around center field pretty well.What did him in though was striking out a little over once per three plate appearances. Yet I think the Fireflies could have used his power over the past week.

12. Natanael Ramos (2.40 DICE, ranked 7th in OPS)
OPS likes him a lot better than DICE, which is because he has the capability of getting extra-base hits but not home runs. Yet extra-base hits are typically so because they are harder to field, and DICE assumes that all balls in play are equally fieldable. Perhaps we should use OPS to evaluate pitchers too (hey, perhaps that's an idea for next week).

13. Tucker Tharp (2.28 DICE, ranked 3rd in OPS)
Tharp has the biggest difference between DICE and OPS ranking of any Firefly. Again that is because he hit for a good average but homered just once (granted, he only had 42 at-bats). He struck out 13 times while walking only once and only got hit by a pitch once (which landed him on the DL for nearly two months before he got promoted). Tharp in some ways has been both very lucky and very unlucky this season.

14. Milton Ramos (2.27 DICE, ranked 16th in OPS)
Ramos has a terrible OPS under .600 as he is batting .222 with just 11 extra-base hits in 230 at-bats all season. He has 1 walk per 2.89 strikeouts this year which is respectable and is why DICE does not dislike him as much as OPS.

15. Vicente Lupo (1.84 DICE, ranked 8th in OPS)
Lupo after getting promoted to start the second half has shown remarkable improvement after spending time in Brooklyn. His strikeout rate is still a bit too high which is why his DICE is so low, but it has been coming down and he now has a home run and 9 extra base hits in 115 at-bats on the season.

16. Enmanuel Zabala (1.44 DICE, ranked 10th in OPS)
I think Zabala is a bit rusty after spending so much time in EST except as an injury replacement back in the spring. He still has too few plate appearances to make a valid judgment based on his numbers.

17. Jose Garcia (1.39 DICE, ranked 17th in OPS)
Garcia by advanced statistics was the worst hitter on the team before he went on the DL. He's still 21 so I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Brooklyn or even rehab in the GCL before he works his way back here when coming off the DL due to the crowded catcher situation right now.

I noticed that the DICE for all of the hitters suggests that pitchers would have generally pretty good ERAs against a team of just those players. That's likely because the team has been struggling to hit right now as a whole, especially for power which is important in stats that take away balls that can be fielded.